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/r/Perth Coronavirus Megathread - 31/01 - 07/02
WA Government - Lockdown Information WA Government Infographic - Summary WA Health - Locations visited by confirmed cases HealthyWA - COVID Clinic Locations / Operating Hours Lockdown Rules Summary (ABC News) ABC COVID Live Blog - Sunday 31/01 Premier's Annoucement: --- IMPORTANT UPDATE REGARDING COMMUNITY CASE OF COVID-19 IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA, AND PERTH, PEEL AND SOUTH-WEST FIVE-DAY LOCKDOWN --- This morning, I convened an urgent meeting of the Emergency Management Team. We have a serious update to provide the WA community. This morning we received news of a positive COVID-19 test result. That positive result has come from a male hotel quarantine security guard, in his 20s. The information we have is fast-evolving. As you can understand, immediately our teams moved into place to begin contact tracing and put in place emergency response systems. This is all underway, and I ask everyone to be cooperative and understanding of what is going to take place. Here is what we know about the male who tested positive: He was working at one of the State’s hotel quarantine facilities – the Sheraton Four Points in the city. He had tested negative for COVID-19 on January Friday 15, January Sunday 17 and Saturday January 23 – as part of the weekly testing system in place. When the man was working at this hotel, there were four active cases of COVID-19. Of those four cases, we have at least three confirmed variant strains, two UK and one South African. We are told the guard was working on the same floor, as a positive UK variant case. The guard completed two 12-hours shifts on both the 26th and 27th of January. Exactly how the infection was acquired remains under investigation. The Health Department contact tracing team has pulled together a list of potential exposure sites of where this positive case has been in recent days. These locations currently include:
Coles Maylands supermarket on 25 January from 8pm to 10pm
KFC Maylands on 27 January from 6pm to midnight
Mitsubishi Motors car dealership in Midland on 27 January from 7pm to close
Spudshed, Coventry Village in Morley on 27 January from 8pm to midnight
ECU Joondalup on 28 January from 11am to 2pm
Consulate General of India on St Georges Terrace in Perth on 28 January from 12pm to 5pm
Halal Grocery Store in Cloverdale on 28 January from 7pm to 9pm
Venus Ladies and Gentleman Hair Design Maylands hairdressers on 29 January from 1pm to 3pm
Perth Convention Centre on 29 January from 4pm to 6pm
Nedlands Family Practice GP surgery on 29 January from 5pm to 6pm
Chemist Warehouse North Perth Pharmacy on 29 January from 5.30pm to 7.30pm
7-Eleven Ascot petrol station on 29 January from 8pm to 9pm
Coles Maylands supermarket on 29 January from 8pm 9pm
Puma Service Station in Burswood on 30 January from 11am to 12 midday.
Coles Express/Shell Service Station in Cloverdale on 30 January from 12 midday to 3pm
Pharmacy 777 at Maylands Park Shopping Centre 30 January from 2.30pm to 4pm.
People who have been to these venues on these dates and times must get tested. In addition, people who live or work in the Falkirk Avenue, Maylands area including Coles, Liquorland and the Maylands shopping precinct should present for a test. They must then go home and isolate until their negative test results are returned. The investigation is on-going by our public health team, and it is likely more locations will be added following further discussions with the man. Close contacts will be contacted by public health officials and asked to quarantine for 14 days. More information on testing clinics will be available on our website – the WA Health and WA Gov websites. The man’s immediate household contacts have been contacted, tested and placed in isolation at State managed quarantine facilities to complete a 14-day quarantine period in a quarantine facility. All three have tested negative this morning. However, we can expect that they will become positive in coming days. Genome sequencing is underway on the positive case and results will be known by Tuesday morning. However, based on the information we have, it appears possible that this new positive case has the highly transmissible UK variant. The past year has been unlike any other – Western Australia has done an incredible job. It’s something I am so proud of. But as we have always known with COVID – it can change very quickly. Today – we need to go back to what we know best, to ensure we limit community transmission of COVID-19 in our State. Even though it was nearly 10 months ago – WA has experienced community transmission of this virus before. We all did the right thing and we crushed it. And it worked. So beginning at 6pm tonight, the whole Perth metropolitan area, the Peel region and the South West region will be going into a full lockdown. This lockdown will run until 6pm on Friday. A five-day lockdown. It’s crucial we act quickly, to keep the community safe. We cannot forget how quickly this virus can spread, nor the devastation it can cause. Following our discussions with the Chief Health Officer and Police Commissioner, the following measures will be put in place from 6pm for people in Perth, Peel and the South West: People in these regions are required to stay home, except for the following four reasons:
Shopping for essentials like groceries, medicine and necessary supplies.
Medical or health care needs including compassionate requirements and looking after the vulnerable.
Exercise, within their neighbourhood, but only with one other person and only for one hour per day.
Work, where you cannot work from home or remotely.
In addition to this Stay Home rule. If you do leave home, for one of the four reasons you will be required to wear a mask at all times outside and if you need to work indoors, then wearing a mask in the workplace is also mandatory. To be clear, mask wearing on public transport is also mandatory. People in the Perth, Peel or South West region need to stay inside their region for the next five days, unless for an essential reason. We are strongly encouraging that everyone in this area, who is from another WA region, stay here and do not travel further outside of this area until the lockdown is over. If you do need to travel outside the region you are in now, that can only occur if you need to return to your place of residence or exceptional circumstances. The transport of essential goods into this region, is permitted, under our existing transport guidelines. This lockdown means the following businesses, venues and locations in the relevant regions need to close for the next five days:
Pubs, bars and clubs
Gyms and indoor sporting venues
Playgrounds, skate parks and outdoor recreational facilities
Cinemas, entertainment venues, and casinos
Large religious gatherings and places of worship
Libraries and cultural institutions
Restaurants and cafes will close, and provide takeaway service only. 10 people can attend funerals, weddings are cancelled for the next five days. No visitors are permitted to your home, unless caring for someone vulnerable or an emergency. No visitors will be allowed in aged care homes, unless exceptional circumstances. No visitors to hospitals and/or disability facilities, unless exceptional circumstances. Elective surgery and procedures for categories 2 and 3 will be suspended from Tuesday, 2 February. Category 1 and urgent category 2 surgery will continue. For a majority of schools in these regions, school was due to start tomorrow. That has now been put on hold and schools will be closed until next week – following the lockdown measures. It is, in effect, an extension of the school holidays. I have been in contact with the Prime Minister and my fellow State and Territory colleagues to advise them of this situation. I have recommended that they put a stop to any travel into WA – as an extra precautionary measure. Border controls are important here – and I 100% support them to ensure we can get through this. All these measures will be reviewed regularly and the Chief Health Officer will continue to monitor the serious situation and provide more ongoing advice. This is an extremely fast-moving situation. I know for many Western Australians this is going to come as a shock. Western Australians have done so well for so long but this week it is absolutely crucial that we stay home, maintain physical distancing and personal hygiene and get tested if you have symptoms. This is a very serious situation and each and every one of us has to do everything we personally can to help stop the spread in the community. We have acted decisively and swiftly given these circumstances. I want to thank everyone in advance for their patience. In effect, for a short period of time, we are going back to what we experienced in March and April. This is a highly unpredictable virus. But it is important to act calmly and take sensible precautions. Leaving your home to purchase food and essentials will be permitted during the lockdown. I say this, so people understand that you do not need to rush to the supermarket today. Take care of your loved ones and be respectful of others including those who are working, to keep essential services and supplies ticking over. Our State is well equipped to handle this situation. We have systems in place throughout the health system that are swinging into action as we speak. We have the capacity to manage this situation. Throughout the pandemic, the response of Western Australians has been second-to-none. The community has done everything we have asked of them. They have made great sacrifices, and it has kept our State safe. I could not be more proud and thankful of the way Western Australians have carried themselves. Now we’re asking for your help once again. We will provide further updates as they come to hand. All relevant information will be posted on websites as it comes to hand. Thank you WA.
“Shamefully, the public’s best interest was a matter of militant indifference to them.” Another day at the office in New York State legislature. Report on Aqueduct Casino calls for criminal investigation of state's leaders.
[WA] Pending ongoing testing results and expert health advice, the lockdown of Perth, Peel and the South West will end at 6pm tomorrow evening
McGowan's statement on Facebook:
As you know, the short-sharp lockdown of Perth, Peel and the South West is due to end tomorrow evening at 6pm. As of 8pm tonight, I can confirm that we have recorded no new local cases of COVID-19. This is a remarkable achievement, and the credit belongs to each and every Western Australian. The short five-day lockdown has done the job it was designed to do – to reassure us that we don’t have community spread of the virus. Provided that we continue to have no new local cases tomorrow, that lockdown will end at 6pm. But as we have flagged, some restrictions will need to remain until we can be absolutely sure that our community is COVID-free. Tonight I can outline to you what that transitional phase will look like for our State. Pending ongoing testing results and expert health advice, lockdown restrictions for Perth, Peel and the South-West will be lifted at 6:00pm tomorrow evening (Friday 5 February). Following that, stay-at-home rules will be lifted - and interim restrictions will apply to Perth and Peel. The South West will immediately return to pre-lockdown conditions at 6pm tomorrow (Friday 5 February). A post-lockdown transition period for the Perth and Peel regions to keep WA safe and resume a more COVID-safe way of life will remain in place until 12.01am Sunday morning, 14 February – allowing for the full 14-day incubation period to run its course. All Western Australians must continue to practise physical distancing where possible and maintain good personal hygiene at all times. The post lockdown transitional measures for the Perth and Peel regions, include the following measures:
Everyone must continue to wear a mask in public and while at work, unless exempt or for outdoor vigorous exercise
All business and venues can reopen, except for the casino and nightclubs
4 square metre capacity rule in place for most venues
150-person capacity – excluding staff – at hospitality, entertainment and venues and events including weddings and funerals at these venues
Community sport can start, and involve up to 150 people including players, officials and spectators.
Seated service only at hospitality venues
Dancing only permitted at weddings and dance studios
20-person limit for private indoor and outdoor gatherings
Visits to aged care and disability care facilities restricted to compassionate grounds
Residential school and boarding facilities can resume with a COVID Safety Plan
Only essential travel is permitted in and out of the Perth and Peel regions to other parts of WA.
Under the post-lockdown transition measures, Perth and Peel schools will start from Monday, 8 February, with the mandatory mask rule applying to all school staff and secondary students. Masks are not required for primary school students. Masks are also mandatory for staff at childcare facilities as well as students and staff in higher education, including TAFEs and universities. Teaching staff are permitted to remove their mask if teaching at the front of the classroom to enable clear enunciation. People who need to leave the Perth and Peel region for essential purposes must wear a mask at all times in other regions of WA, as per the rules in place in Perth and Peel. Elective surgery at WA public hospitals will resume once the lockdown has ended and people will be contacted directly to re-schedule and re-book their appointments which were suspended due to the five-day lockdown. FIFO workers will once again be able to leave the Perth and Peel regions, but documentation will be required and they must follow strict health protocols. COVID-safe measures including the use of contact registers and SafeWA will continue to be crucial as part of post-lockdown life. Currently, the onus is on businesses to ensure a contact register is available for patrons. But from 6pm tomorrow the responsibility will be shared – individuals will now also face penalties if they fail to scan in using either SafeWA or the contact register available. As always, authorities will apply a common-sense approach. For more information on our post-lockdown plans visit www.wa.gov.au. This is an important step for our State, and one which we are only able to take because Western Australians have overwhelmingly done the right thing under extremely challenging circumstances. This week we have seen the absolute best of WA. The community united behind one another, followed the rules, got tested and gave us confidence to move to this transitional stage. But this has been an extremely disruptive week, and I expect the next 24 hours and the following week will still be challenging for many people. I encourage everyone to support local businesses as much as they can - it will go a long way to help them recover from the events of the past week. I wish we could just snap back immediately to the life we had last week - but doing so would be too risky. It would be irresponsible. All things going well, and if we continue to see good results from our COVID testing, this phase will last for less than nine days. But to make sure that happens, I do need to ask one more thing: If you are unwell, if you have any symptoms – please go get tested. And obviously, if you have been to any of the exposure sites, you need to get tested. And even if you have received a negative result, get tested again if symptoms develop. I cannot stress this enough. I know this week has been tough. But we live in the best country in the world – and the best State in the country. And we will get through this. Thank you. Source:Mark McGowan's statement on Facebook https://preview.redd.it/xuhc4dq9mgf61.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=026efd42c474e0eece7525281fc94465a3fa4bef
But after the ruling, the plaintiffs identified documents - 55 so far - that should have been turned over to them but never were. Last month the court ordered the state to turn over the computers so the plaintiffs could forensically examine them because the judges found "some form of 'fraud, misrepresentation, or misconduct' likely occurred."
"With all due deference to separation of powers, last week the Supreme Court reversed a century of law that I believe will open the floodgates for special interests -- including foreign corporations -- to spend without limit in our elections," Obama told a packed House of Representatives chamber Wednesday night. "I don't think American elections should be bankrolled by America's most powerful interests, or worse, by foreign entities. They should be decided by the American people. And I'd urge Democrats and Republicans to pass a bill that helps to correct some of these problems."
You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger.” By 1968 you can’t say “nigger”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “Nigger, nigger.”--Lee Atwater, former RNC Chairman, adviser to Reagan and HW Bush Administrations, close acquaintance to Karl Rove
"With all due deference to separation of powers, last week the Supreme Court reversed a century of law that I believe will open the floodgates for special interests -- including foreign corporations -- to spend without limit in our elections," Obama told a packed House of Representatives chamber Wednesday night. "I don't think American elections should be bankrolled by America's most powerful interests, or worse, by foreign entities. They should be decided by the American people. And I'd urge Democrats and Republicans to pass a bill that helps to correct some of these problems." Alito, part of the court's conservative majority, could be seen apparently frowning and quietly mouthing the words "not true."Via CNN, 2010
Just earlier in the week, Biden's campaign affirmed the candidate's support for the ban, setting off criticism from abortion rights supporters, who called on Biden to reverse his long-held position.
Long before Trump ran for the White House, Justice Kennedy’s son, Justin, worked as an investment banker at Deutsche. Enrich describes how he developed a relationship with Trump, his daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner, helping to finance real-estate deals no other bank would touch because of Trump’s record of failing to pay his debts to lenders, contractors and business partners. ... Justin Kennedy was part of the US branch of Deutsche Bank from 1998 to 2009. Drawn to Trump’s risk-taking and glamour, he became a Trump confidant, sitting with the real estate impresario at the US Open tennis or in Manhattan nightclubs, and chaperoning huge loans to finance Trump’s real estate spending sprees. Kennedy, who ran the bank’s commercial real-estate team, continued to lend to Trump even though Deutsche clients had suffered severe losses when Trump’s casino business collapsed and he declared bankruptcy.
“It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS,” Leslie Moonves, chairman of CBS, said of the Trump phenomenon in March, according to the Hollywood Reporter.
I must make two honest confessions to you, my Christian and Jewish brothers. First, I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection. "Letter from a Birmingham Jail, MLK Jr."
In the transcript published by the Post, (Kevin) McCarthy speculates that the Russians hacked the Democratic National Committee’s computers and, in the process, discovered whatever opposition-research materials the Democrats had gathered on Trump. “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” (Kevin) McCarthy said, according to Entous, a superb reporter who heard a tape recording of the colloquy. “Swear to God.” In the Post piece, McCarthy’s remark is met with laughter, and Ryan cautions his colleagues, “This is an off the record . . . No leaks! . . . All right?”
Since The Weeknd is performing at the Super Bowl Halftime show, I thought it’d be nice to post a little guide to his discography for anyone interested in looking to do a deep dive into his work. I would’ve posted this the day of the event, but I assume that some people would probably like to go through it over the weekend. This shares a direct overview of his released material, talking about his career and the background of the music, the videos, the meanings and all. I’ve written this from a pop perspective, keeping in mind that his history might be fairly new for general pop fans. I also go into the storyline of the red suit character, if your interested in catching up on that narrative before the Halftime show (which will continue the story), I’ve listed the chronological order below followed by an explanation of that narrative. I wanna be clear that the interpretations/theories are not conclusive. Abel rarely shares the metaphors or meanings behind his music. This is based on widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Fans can feel free to expand on anything in the comments. It is important to know about Abel's backstory to get a certain perspective of where he’s coming from, especially when discussing the songs that deal with substance abuse. These recent articles cover his early years really well and share an up-to-date point of view of his success. Variety 2020 Billboard 2021 - Also a good source for getting to know his team. So, an essential TL;DR is this: Abel Tesfaye came from a broken home, he was born to Ethiopian immigrant parents who split up when Tesfaye was less than seven. He then lived with his mother and grandmother, only rarely seeing his father but having a nice impression of him. His drug addiction started as soon as he was a high schooler, he turned to shoplifting to pay for this need of various substances. Soon he dropped out of high school, leaving his home the same weekend, which would later inspire his stage name, The Weeknd. The name is reference/homage to the weekend his life changed. Quick side note, I didn’t think this post would nearly reach the character limit. So I’ve cut out excess detail and lists of producers (with the exception of After Hours since we’re in that era). Table of contents
XO.
House of Balloons.
Thursday.
Echoes of Silence.
Trilogy.
Kiss Land.
King of the Fall.
Beauty Behind The Madness.
Starboy.
My Dear Melancholy.
After Hours.
XO.
XO is the record label that The Weeknd and co. created in order to publish the first mixtape (House of Balloons) and the ones that would follow afterwards. XO has a lot of meanings that have to do with what went into the music and what still goes into it. XO is what the fans call themselves, popularly with the phrase XO Till We OD (shortened to XOTWOD); another way of saying “we’re ride or die for The Weeknd and his team.” While some argue that it could mean anything since there isn’t clear meaning to it, fans continue to associate the abbreviation with ecstasy (X) and oxycontin (O). That definition stems from XOTWOD, fans assume it’s true because of the team’s history of drug usage. While others take it as it’s classical definition “hugs and kisses” because of the consistent lyrical nature of The Weeknd’s songs. Overtime the definition of XO is simply known as: the fans, the crew, and the label. The Weeknd is more than just one person, he comes with XO. For the sake of clarity in this writeup, I’m going to refer to his crew as XO and the fans as “the fans.” XO still serves as a record label, the current roster is The Weeknd, Belly, Nav, and Black Atlass. It remains The Weeknd’s record label and was his first label before becoming a subsidiary of Republic Records. Throughout his career, The Weeknd has worked with Illangelo, a Canadian producer who’s work the fans adore. Carlo “Illangelo” Montagnese was one of main the producers on The Weeknd’s Trilogy, he’s credited on each track. The fan base claims his work to be some of the most notable artistry in The Weeknd’s discography. Their work together continued with Beauty Behind The Madness, Illangelo worked on seven tracks for that album. He then returned for After Hours working on another seven tracks. DaHeala, another Canadian producer, is another significant factor in The Weeknd’s music. Jason “DaHeala” Quenneville worked as lead producer on Kiss Land. He returned to work on six tracks for The Weeknd’s Beauty Behind The Madness, including the hit Earned It. DaHeala returned as a writer for six of the songs on Starboy. Then DaHeala worked on nine After Hours tracks, and worked as the only producewriter alongside The Weeknd for bonus tracks Missed You and Final Lullaby.
This is a happy house. We’re happy here. (House of Balloons/Glass Table Girls)
One of the most iconic title tracks of all time. House of Balloons is about a lifestyle of drugs, sex, and partying; all in effort to drown out self-doubt. It comes from a place of wanting to make it big while doing what you can to survive, all while pretending everything’s alright. The mixtape describes various sorts of women, how they’ve had impacted the life of someone who’s already down on his luck. Fans often refer to House of Balloons as The Weeknd’s best work. The mixtape was the first introduction the world got of XO, and it was one hell of a way to make an impression. It’s personal for the fans and Abel because it’s the only piece of work known to be based on his life. At the end of the day he’s a songwriter, with many of his albums he creates scenarios and world that he likes to explore through the music. But House of Balloons is known to be based entirely on his life. It remains The Weeknd’s most critically acclaimed work. House of Balloons was crafted through the influences of Hip-Hip/Indie-Rock with the main focus on R&B. Through the genius of Ilangelo, the record was—and is—mesmerizing capturing the essence of a lifestyle that The Weeknd described as “anti-everything.” House of Balloons assisted The Weeknd in gaining the attention of Republic Records, which would then host The Weeknd’s own label XO. Though hesitant at first, XO decided to partner with Republic after the co-founding brothers Monte and Avery Lipman kept coming back to Toronto solely for The Weeknd. House of Balloons received three videos, The Knowing, Wicked Games and Twenty Eight. The Knowing was the very first video The Weeknd made, so of course it’d be something other-worldly; it essentially reflects the song itself but in a sci-fi setting. Twenty Eight represents Abel’s life after fame but also his remorse of letting captivating women into his life. Fun fact— House of Balloons is an actual place in Toronto, it was where him and his crew lived after he dropped out of high school. They’d host parties, call girls, do drugs, and to make it less depressing they’d fill it with balloons.
Thursday consists of the same themes as HoB; sex and drugs. But there’s a twist, he’s in a semi-relationship with this girl Valerie. She’s the only one on his mind, even though they meet only one day of the week, any guesses on what day that could be? Through The Weeknd’s phenomenal voice and the insane production, we’re also presented with this story of a toxic relationship where Valerie used to have the upper hand but she no longer does when she falls for The Weeknd. While Thursday isn’t entirely about the relationship of The Weeknd and Valerie, it consists of reflections to Abel’s life after the release of House of Balloons. The song Rolling Stone notably has a double meaning, in which Abel asks his fans if they’ll stick with him when he gets mainstream appeal and decides to change his sound. The track Valerie wasn’t on the original release of Thursday, it added when Trilogy was released. Ending the mixtape with Heaven or Las Vegas meant that The Weeknd’s actions with and without Valerie were a result of his fatherless childhood, making him push anyone away. That meaning behind Thursday doesn’t change when Valerie is added to the track list, it just means that both want the toxic relationship back. The Zone (feat. Drake) was the first feature The Weeknd had on any of his work, the video for it was released in November of 2012. Rolling Stone had also received a video in October of 2012. Both were directed by The Weeknd and reflect the two different aspects of Thursday. The Zone has Valerie living it up in the House of Balloons. And Rolling Stone has The Weeknd doing a photoshoot for Trilogy, reflective of the song itself. Fun Fact— the female voice heard in Lonely Star is The Weeknd’s, he pitched his voice to make it sound like a woman’s.
Laisse tomber les filles. Un jour c'est toi qu'on laissera. [Leave the girls alone. One day it’ll be you they will leave.] (Montreal)
Out of a dark introductory into the early life of The Weeknd, Echoes of Silence is the darkest work of his Trilogy. Let’s be honest the story here isn’t entirely ethical at times but makes for one hell of a mixtape. Similar to Thursday, Echoes of Silence follows a storyline. After accumulating success, The Weeknd gains the attention of various women. There was this one woman (D.D.) who he liked but she initially rejected him (Montreal). The woman came back to him for his fame status and evidently fell in love with him (Outside), but now that he’s got the upper hand he treats him like a groupie (XO/The Host) and lets... bad things happen to her; she’s gotta pass a test before she can get with him. This test is either drugs or his crew (Initiation). He ultimately tells this woman that he’s not exactly longterm-relationship material, perhaps because her love is temporary (Same Old Song), because he’s Next. With the end of Echoes of Silence (originally ending on the title track) the listener is left to wonder why The Weeknd left her if he’d simply want her to stay. As a side note— Initiation should not be condoned. It remains true that The Weeknd is a songwriter and the progression of time has changed perspectives. But a song that makes such suggestions as Initiation should not be ethically/morally claimed or celebrated. The mixtape follows The Weeknd’s lifestyle after he’s gained all this success, he’s still the same person but now he’s gotten everything he wanted. Some tracks such as The Fall continue to emphasize his journey into stardom and his acceptance of fame being temporary. With the added Till Dawn (Here Comes The Sun), The Weeknd acknowledges the changes in his life, realizing that the old lifestyle is no longer there for him or his past lovers. Echoes of Silence is known as an underrated gem of The Weeknd’s discography, it’s well received by fans and critically acclaimed but often brushed under the rug in discussion of his work. A lot of fans and casual listeners play the mixtapes through Trilogy rather than their respective albums. This often leads to people not playing EoS either at all or only the first few tracks, this is predominantly due to the nature of the compilation being nearly three hours long. Fun fact— D.D. is a cover of Michael Jackson’s iconic Dirty Diana. Fans have named the woman in Echoes of Silence Diana because of this track. Various theories argue that the mixtape itself is based on the Dirty Diana itself with exaggerations of the truth, or whether or not it’s a story The Weeknd crafted based on the song.
Trilogy is a compilation of The Weeknd’s mixtapes, House of Balloons, Thursday, and Echoes of Silence. These three mixtapes were released 3-4 months apart from one another for free digital download in 2011, they gained quite a lot of attention from various industry executives. Prior to the release of Trilogy, The Weeknd featured on Drake’s Take Care with Crew Love. The song was Abel’s first exposure to a Rap crowd/Rap fans, more people began listening to his music after the release of Take Care. The Weeknd then featured on Wiz Khalifa’s Remember You, which served as the second single off Wiz Khalifa’s O.N.I.F.C. Following those two releases, The Weeknd released Wicked Games as the first single off Trilogy. Trilogy was formed after The Weeknd came under Republic Records’ management. The compilation album reached a debut/peak position of 4 on the Billboard 200 while reaching number one on the US Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums chart. It’s a well received album with the highlight said to be House of Balloons, which arguably went on to influence various sorts of R&B music of the 2010s. Videos for Trilogy
I went from starin' at the same four walls for 21 years. To seein' the whole world in just 12 months. (Kiss Land)
Kiss Land is based on The Weeknd’s tour life. Visiting unfamiliar places gave Abel horror movie vibes. A guy who used to own the city (Toronto) he lived in is now a small fish in the ocean of the entire world. The Weeknd’s first studio album was a great introduction into the sound he would soon get well acquainted with. While continuing the R&B sound with the essence of Dark Wave, the album explores emptiness and regret throughout the lyrics—or what pop fans could categorize as dark pop—. The Japanese aesthetic used for various videos and the single covers/booklet reflects the themes of feeling overwhelmed by such a loud world that there’s no point in being if you don’t belong. The album explores the real-world and the women in it as well as regrets regarding past actions, namely letting go of women who could’ve been the one in Adaptation. The Weeknd attempts to find that satisfaction in other women and past lovers, but accidentally falls for a sex worker in Belong To The World. With Wanderlust he accepts and expresses that love in the modern world isn’t entirely possible. While continuing to tour the world he enjoys these new experiences with XO (Live For feat. Drake), as well as the new women in his life (Kiss Land). And when he’s back home, he accepts the loss of the relationship he cherished. Kiss Land debuted and peaked at number two on the Billboard 200. It was fairly acclaimed but gained a massive cult following. There were four videos for made for the album, the title track, Belong To the World, Live For (feat. Drake), and Pretty. Those four songs received interesting visuals that kept up with their respective themes while Belong To the World/Kiss Land got visuals that matched the aesthetic of the album. To this day fans ask Abel for a part two to the horror-movie-inspired album after he said it’s the only album he would have a sequel for. Videos for Kiss Land Fun Fact— The video for Kiss Land on YouTube is an extremely edited version of the actual video shot for the song. The directors cut further explores the erotic-horror themes if the album.
Driving by the streets we used to walk through like a triumph. (King of the Fall)
These next few song were released between the Kiss Land and Beauty Behind the Madness era. Some fans would classify them as part of the Beauty Behind the Madness era—I’d say the same tbh—but they stand apart on the basis of success and acclaim. It’s a transition between The Weeknd being an underrated R&B musician to being a mainstream artist with massive recognition and appreciation. The first of these four songs is King of the Fall. A fan favourite and a standout in The Weeknd’s discography. This is one of The Weeknd’s few Rap tracks, it gained a lot of attention within the Rap sphere. It was the way in which XO would announce that they’ve made it, little did they know that this was just the start. Prior to the release of Beauty Behind the Madness (BBTM), The Weeknd gained mainstream attention. The Weeknd’s exposure to mainstream music was uphill, it wasn’t overnight. The first taste of BBTM came from Often, a song that reflected the themes of sex that Abel was known for. The track was released more than a year before BBTM’s release and had made it onto the trackless unlike King of the Fall. Slowly but surely The Weeknd gained exposure, his main sources of exposure were through a collaboration and a soundtrack. Most pop fans heard about The Weeknd through his hit collaboration with Ariana Grande, Love Me Harder. The collab was made through Republic when The Weeknd said he wanted more than what he had gotten through Kiss Land. Ariana and Abel had formed a real bond cough The Hills cough, their bond assisted the song in becoming a memorable hit for both artists. Love Me Harder was a top ten hit on the Billboard Hot 100. Later that year, The Weeknd was featured on the Fifty Shades of Grey soundtrack with Earned It, as well as Where You Belong. Earned It became a massive hit peaking at 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 and receiving an Oscar nomination for The Weeknd; a massive milestone for XO. Earned It kept up with Abel’s signature lyrics but the production differed heavily from the sort of R&B he was known for. Videos from that era
I'm that ***** with the hair singin' 'bout poppin' pills, fuckin' bitches, livin' life so trill. (Tell Your Friends)
Following the success of Love Me Harder and Earned It, the Beauty Behind the Madness era began with The Hills. This was The Weeknd’s first number one on the Billboard Hot 100. Along with the video, The Hills became an addictive classic. The production and lyrics mirror a mature version of the sound that was originally found on Trilogy. It was truly in keeping with The Weeknd’s character, the only difference was his haircut. Next came Can’t Feel My Face, a Max Martin production that differed greatly from anything The Weeknd put out in the past. In past songs, Abel had expressed his fear of losing his following if he went mainstream simultaneously asking his fans if they’d stay. He repeats that sentiment in the Can’t Feel My Face video. The sound has changed, the lyrics stay the same but now he’s a pop-star. The song became a hit as it reached number one on the Billboard Hot 100. With this massive bop previous fans still stayed, The Weeknd becoming a pop singer didn’t at all alter his image or sound; he mastered it. In The Night and Acquainted were released as singles on the same day, the were the only singles to come after the release of Beauty Behind The Madness. The former received a music video treatment that followed the theme of the song itself while also starring Abel’s girlfriend at the time, Bella Hadid. Acquainted was robbed of a video even though Abel had shown off the fact that a video was in development; the song kept in the tone of The Weeknd’s work prior to BBTM. Beauty Behind the Madness captures a Hollywood-based reality that The Weeknd came to understand: the dark aspects of your life will continue to follow you wherever you are. Real Life, Losers (feat. Labrinth), Tell Your Friends, Dark Times (feat. Ed Sheeran), and Prisoner (feat. Lana Del Rey) all capture a nihilistic view of a dream achieved. Most of the videos of Beauty Behind The Madness have a mysterious white man. He’s featured in The Hills, Can’t Feel My Face, and Tell Your Friends. That man represents the devil. Throughout his journey in those videos, (The Hills) Abel runs into the devil after his car crash, (Can’t Feel My Face) he’s at the club then lights him on fire. The significance behind the fire could be selling his soul to the devil, BBTM is about Hollywood and a popular Hollywood myth is that celebrities sell their souls to the devil in exchange for fame. So in the Can’t Feel My Face video, Abel changes his sound to Pop (from R&B) thus leaving his signature sound in order to become famous, everyone starts enjoying his music once he’s sold his soul. Then we see The Weeknd burying himself in Tell Your Friends, perhaps leaving the old Abel behind after the deal with the devil. However, instead of thanking the devil, Abel takes his revenge and shoots him. But wait, there’s more! The album trailer for BBTM features the devil burning a billboard with The Weeknd’s face on it, revealing Beauty Behind The Madness. HOWEVER, the final cut for the video features the devil being arrested while The Weeknd watches. This is a more realistic form of karma that the devil gets. Videos for BBTM
If I could, I'd trade it all, trade it for a halo. And she said that she'll pray for me, I said, "It's too late for me.” (Ordinary Life)
After the massive success of Beauty Behind the Madness, there was a lot of hype around what The Weeknd would do next; evidently he decided to explore Pop. The fandom he had gained wasn’t entirely based in the Pop sphere, his fans consisted of general Rap fans, but Starboy attracted the Pop audience. Initially, most of his older fans couldn’t get behind Starboy, it differed greatly from the previous sound. It was crazy to think that the guy who made Trilogy managed to make such a Pop-centric album. But this was Abel expressing his versatility. Since this is where most pop fans found out about Abel’s work and became fans I won’t talk too much about the singles, rather more about the album itself. His work with Daft Punk cemented this album in an efficient mix between Pop and R&B, where Beauty Behind the Madness was more R&B with Pop, Starboy was considered Pop with R&B. Beyond the genres, Starboy explores two evident themes. One being his life with fame and recognition. The next being his love life in Hollywood, this aspect of the album came from his relationship with Bella Hadid which ended after the release of the album. The cross became the symbol for that era and appeared in the album’s photoshoot as well as the videos. There was never any conclusive word on the use of the cross but there are various theories about it, something to note is that Abel was raised Christian, it could perhaps be a reflection of his past. The cross he uses to destroy his accolades (Starboy video) is assisting him rather than something that’s holding him back. Abel’s upbringing was rough but now he’s celebrating it rather than feeling bad for himself. The cross continues to come up in the Party Monster video, this time it’s in the party house he’s making his way through. Then it shows up in the video for Reminder, this time in the form of his merch, the people wearing it are perhaps representative of his fans. Then we see it in the False Alarm video, both Abel and the girl are wearing it; the notable thing being that Abel holds his cross up before dying. Then in the brilliant video for Secrets, after giving up on the girl he’s with he leaves the building to find a giant cross. And finally in the I Feel It Coming video, The Weeknd sports a shiny cross necklace, and Daft Punk find it years and years after Abel froze. The videos tell us that the cross is an evident piece of his story. This could mean that his past will always be with him, no matter what sort of fame he’s experiencing he’ll always be who he once was. Also, I’m gonna take this moment to once again the genius that is the Secrets (both the song and the video). Yes it’s my favourite song/video off of Starboy but it’s so underrated. Videos for Starboy, Secrets video bottom right Fun Fact— Most demos of the tracks on Starboy weren’t as pop as they became, they started off R&B but became pop after production.
They said our love is just a game, I don't care what they say. But I'ma drink the pain away, I'll be back to my old ways. (Privilege)
Oof (but in a good way, this whole thing is a bop). For this one I’m gonna talk extensively about The Weeknd’s relationships, which personally feels really invasive but it’s but it’s essential when talking about these sad boy anthems. Beyond that I’d just like to state that though they are part of the narrative both Bella Hadid and Selena Gomez deserve respect/privacy. So when it comes to Pop music fans I think it’s safe to say that we all know a lot about this one. My Dear Melancholy (MDM) came after the very public relationship of The Weeknd and Selena Gomez. However it’s not just about Selena, some songs reflect his relationship with Bella Hadid (whom he got back with a month after MDM’s release). My Dear Melancholy consists with The Weeknd’s exploration/mastery of merging Pop and R&B together. The EP was praised by fans for its lyrics and production, many went on to theorize that it was his most personal project since House of Balloons. The EP was the shortest album to reach number one on the Billboard 200. My Dear Melancholy and fan conspiracies; name a better duo. The first theory being that the EP is entirely about Selena Gomez which wasn’t too much of a mystery since the lyric “I almost cut a piece of myself for your life” exists. Not only did MDM come after Abel’s relationship with Selena Gomez but also after his relationship with Bella Hadid. As far as fans were aware those two relationships were the most important relationships Abel had ever been in. In theory, the songs about Bella and Selena can be categorized. Call Out My Name, Try Me, and Privilege are likely about Selena. Wasted Times, and Hurt You are likely about Bella. Leaving I Was Never There to act as an introspective look into The Weeknd’s life, basically making him hop back on his vices for comfort. Another popular theory was that My Dear Melancholy was the first of another trilogy. This rumour was widely believed due to the comma at the end of the title on the album cover. But the fans soon gained a real reason to believe this theory, since the CEO of XO (the record label), Sal had liked an Instagram post that featured the cover and alleged date. Since Trilogy is a fan favourite this conspiracy spread like wild fire, so much so that fake titles and covers were made. The name of this trilogy would be: (1)My Dear Melancholy, (2)We’re Alone Together, (3)Abel. Only one song served as a single for the EP. Call Out My Name was released nearly two months prior to the actual release of the album, it debuted/peaked at number four on the Billboard Hot 100. The mysterious video captures The Weeknd in various atmospheric places that reflect the tone of the EP, a haunting yet unexplained reality that the listener is to reflect on. From the cover, to the music, to the video, to lyrics, My Dear Melancholy is an introspective reflection of heartbreak. Call out my name video
After Hours comes after success but references two lows in The Weeknd’s life. The album welcomes darkness and leads the listener towards a dead-end. The Weeknd’s past two albums (Beauty Behind The Madness and Starboy) ended on hopeful notes, they left the listener with a sense of hope but all hope his lost with After Hours. Fans compare After Hours to House of Balloons—a rare occurrence considering House of Balloons’ acclaim—arguing that both albums are on the same level. Debate continues on whether or not both albums are on the same caliber. The belief that After Hours stems from reality does a lot to help its side of the argument. The era began with Mercedes-Benz commercial that featured Blinding Lights, that was our first taste of the everlasting bop. Heartless was premiered on an episode of Memento Mori hours before its release on the 27 of November (2019), Blinding Lights was released two days later. Both videos were as brain melting as promised and the served as the tip of the iceberg. After Hours was released nine days after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, there was a massive risk in releasing an album that would not have a lot of promotion after it’s release (other than magazine coverage). There was no telling whether or not people would pay attention to the album during the height of the fear surrounding the pandemic, but it was a massive success. After Hours debuted at number one on the Billboard 200, with singles Heartless and Blinding Lights topping the Billboard Hot 100. The album is layered with haunting productions that remains predominantly R&B but dives deep into Pop with some of the tracks. Max Martin produced the massive hit Blinding Lights as well as In Your Eyes, Save Your Tears, Hardest to Love, and Scared to Live which samples Elton John’s Your Song. Other notable producers include Metro Boomin who worked on the hit Heartless as well as Escape from LA, Faith, and Until I Bleed Out. With Kevin Parker on the interlude Repeat After Me. Beyond the production are the narrative driven lyrics. In theory the album references two significant events in Abel’s life, his second breakup with Bella Hadid and his arrest in Las Vegas. The latter was due to his misbehaviour; in January 2015 he punched a cop in Vegas, lmao. Which means that After Hours is a recollection of The Weeknd’s first few years in LA. He merges the concept of his breakup with the idea of being an upcoming star, feeling free in the city of lights all while diving deep into the meaninglessness of those lights. While After Hours starts with loneliness and a second chance it leads up to Abel returning to his vices of lust. In Alone Again his loneliness caught up to him and he’s asking for a second chance. He acknowledges his mistakes and situation in Too Late/Hardest to Love, in Scared to Live his ex then returns to him for a second time. He remembers his past ways in Snowchild and the way in which it lead to better days, but where do you go after such highs? In Escape From LA he faces the superficial reality of Hollywood, glad that he got that he got back with his ex, while continuing to question if it’s worth it. But he fucks up the second chance when she pulls up to the studio. Who is she? Much like the other mysteries surrounding The Weeknd’s music, we may never know. Is it all more of The Weeknd’s songwriting ability or is it driven by reality? Fans found a merge between the two to be more accurate, After Hours is about heartbreak and a return to the vices that held The Weeknd back. Heartless is when The Weeknd is once again back to his ways, he may have been in a serious relationship but after throwing that away he spirals back to the way he once was. It’s sad but it’s one hell of a song. Speaking of brilliant songs, Faith is when Abel admits that he’s back on his vices, he states that he needs his ex back with him till the end; he’s back to self-loathing. So when he says he’s blinded by the lights, there’s two meanings to it. The Faith outro tells us that he’s in a car with flashing lights, a cop car (as confirmed by Abel) to be exact. Then Blinding Lights tells us that while he’s watching the bright lights of Vegas pass him by he calls out for the girl that he regrets losing. That is the peak of the After Hours narrative. He’s behaving badly over the loss of the girl he loved and is now at the worst position trying to find her and gain her trust for a third time. Following Blinding Lights is In Your Eyes, this is where The Weeknd vows not to judge her; he can see right through her but will never do anything to make her upset. Does this mean their back together? Not exactly. Save Your Tears details a sort of moving-on that The Weeknd isn’t ready for but tries to help her move on, blind to his own inability to move on. Does it work? Not really. Repeat After Me (Interlude) shows that he’s still trying to convince himself that he’s unfazed by the loss of a meaningful relationship. Then you hear a true masterpiece. The title track is a spiral into true regret and an apology for his actions, he admits that his ex girlfriend is the only reason he lives. In a dark lonely city she’s the only one keeping him sane. But his pleas fail, Until I Bleed Out is when The Weeknd no longer wants her in his life so much so that he wants to erase his memory of anything related to her. The bonus tracks then echo the final sentiment. It’s one sad ass album, ain’t it. But here’s where the Red Suit Character comes in. Shoutout to the makeup department The album isn’t the only narrative to follow with After Hours. The videos for the album follow their own sort of narrative. The story follows an unnamed guy that goes by “red suit character” according to The Weeknd. There’s a lot of confusion and endless theories surrounding this character’s story, after The Weeknd confirmed that it’s about a decent into Hollywood culture it makes more sense… kind of. I’m gonna discuss the storyline without talking about the movies that have influenced it, this way the focus remains on the character. The order of these videos is Heartless / Blinding Lights / Blinding Lights (Live on Kimmel)* / After Hours short film / In Your Eyes / Until I Bleed Out / Snowchild / Too Late / Live at AMAs* / Save Your Tears *Though all live performances could count as part of the narrative, these one relate directly with the videos that follow. He’s is first seen in Vegas with Metro Boomin (Heartless), intoxicated on various substances. He dives deeper into his high until he licks a frog, after that he faces the true effects of this high. He’s frightened by the result and runs far away from Vegas. (Blinding Lights) He’s then found in LA, where he’s dancing in the street, hypnotized by the singer, beat up by guards, and races past all those bright lights in his Benz. Ultimately realizing the shallowness of the Los Angeles fantasy. (Blinding Lights Live on Kimmel) We then find him performing Blinding Lights live, while he attempts to find more reason in within the madness city; he couldn’t find it on the streets so he goes to the stage. (After Hours short film) Even then there’s no meaning to anything in the city, he mindlessly wanders into the depth of the subway where he’s dragged by the reality of it all and ends up possessed. (In Your Eyes) After being possessed he chases the woman whose boyfriend he just murdered, she runs into a club falls deeper into the After Hours fantasy, in a successful attempt to defend herself she beheads the red suit character and dances all over LA with his head, iconic behaviour. (Until I Bleed Out) Then in an ethereal dreamscape, red suit character finds himself in a House of Balloons. He’s trying to escape, but the people there keep pulling him in; he’s getting higher while observing Glass Table Girls. He spirals into the antarctic, the other side of the world. From Heatless to this point in his story, his vices lead him back to the lowest point in Abel’s life. Is it Hell, Heaven or Las Vegas? (Snowchild) He relives his career up until the point where his story began. Considering he’s dead, his life basically flashed before his eyes. (Too Late) LA girls find the red suit character’s head and live their best life. They wanna have sex with him so they find the best boy parts by calling up a stripper who could be the body. The stitch the head up with the body and do what they want. But now he’s brought back to life. (Live at AMAs) He’s had work done… He went in to get his nose fixed and the doctor said “you sure that’s all you want?” The red suit character’s face is healing while he tries to celebrate his life on top of a bridge. (Save Your Tears) Surrounded by a masked cult he debut’s his new face. Do they like it? Are they impressed? Not instantly, their masks translate no expression so how’s he to know? Is any of this worth it? Nope red suit character continues to die inside. He finds a maskless girl in the crowd, she’s lively unlike the rest; but even then, nothing on the inside nothing on the outside. He wants death again, somehow a second chance with this city is still pointless. He tries to kill himself via the girl and himself but it’s all a facade; theatrics. His story continues but that’s all we know so far. The videos make a lot of film references. This post by explain these references very well, as well as past album references here (part one) and here (part two). After Hours is inspired by a lot of movies, since Abel is in fact a cinephile. The main movies that inspired the aesthetic and storytelling are believed to be Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998), Casino (1995), Joker (2019), Uncut Gems (2020), and After Hours (1985). The album tells two sad narratives but remains one of The Weeknd’s best works yet. He’s expanded his videography and enhanced the interest of people who casually enjoy his music and of course his fans. But the era isn’t over, by the time this is posted his Super Bowl Halftime show is yet to happen. And it’ll continue the red suit character’s story. Videos for After Hours (so far) Fun Fact—The Heartless video features a reference to Thursday. When he’s trying to run from Vegas, a sign behind him flashes “Heartless / Heaven or Las Vegas.” This could be a reference to Abel running from his past, after all Heartless is about him returning to his vices.
END.
Thank you for reading this, again, I didn’t realize it would end up being this long. But I hope this this served as a nice refresher for any fans who wanted to revisit Abel’s work before the Super Bowl. And I really hope that anyone interested in getting into his music finds this helpful. Once again, the theories/interpretations mentioned aren’t conclusive, they’re widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Due to the character limit I couldn’t add too links to the albums, so here are some artist links. Apple Music | Spotify | YouTube | The Weeknd’s Shop | Tidal | Genius
How do you want to do this? A Discussion on Selective Rule Enforcement and the application of the "Rule of Cool"
Hello folks, For my research analysis and writing class my professor let me pick any topic I want. (her mistake) So for my final term paper I chose to come up with a method of determining a guide to the use of the "rule of cool." I got a A on the paper so I figured I'd share it with you fine folks as well. It is rather lengthy so I've included the abstract first. The 8 tips for dungeon masters is near the end (third session), the first and second parts deal more with the philosophical and ethics of games. So, if situational ethics and a discussion on the Mechanics, Dynamics, and Aesthetics of Play are of use for you, be my guess. I am a relatively new DM so I spent a long time researching and trying to absorb what would make me a "good DM". With that cavate please keep in mind I know next to nothing compared to a vast majority of the DMs here. I can think of no place better to have this paper peer-reviewed, picked apart and "rebutalled" to death than here. If you feel offended, challenged, or angry reading this... Please understand I am a moron borrowing the works and words of far smarter people. If you feel that "this is the WAY" again... I am a moron... so ... with out further ado.
Abstract:
The choice to be a stringent rule-follower without leniency using fanatical legalism in a game can be a source of contention between someone acting as a referee and/or “Game Master” and players of a game. Likewise, to approach games with a sense of fanatical antinomianism, or to completely ignore the rules and simply let players do whatever they want, tends to offer no challenge, and or reason to play that specific game. Using ethical theory frameworks such as situational ethics, natural law, and utilitarianism this paper seeks find the philosophical principles of what moments are acceptable and actually beneficial to bend the rules of a game. As such, it is important to define games, briefly discuss why games are played, and roles rules have on games. The game Dungeons and Dragons 5th edition will be used as the principal example. With “rule for rules” established, seven tips on how to implement it this rule using advice and guidance from some of the most well known “Dungeon Masters” in the modern era will be provided. Much of this paper relies on the works of Joseph Fletcher, Sheila Murphy; Benard Suits, Robin Hunicke, Marc LeBlanc, and Robert Zubek for the ethical and philosophical discussions around games. For the practical advice, it relies primarily on the works of Matthew Mercer, Brennan Lee Mulligan, Benjamin Scott, Patrick Tracy, Kelly Mclaughlin and Monty Martin. Players are your friends, or at the very least your fellow human beings. As such, seek out what is best for them. Games are about many things but principally about enjoyment. It’s okay if the player does not get exactly what they want, so long as they still had enjoyment. How it happens is up to the players, the one running the game, and whether the rules were used to enhance the experience or not. It’s possible to find that balance by asking these questions in order: “How will this decision affect: the final enjoyment of all at the table? the narrative? the rules in the future?”
**“Once upon a time, around a table…”
A man behind a cardboard screen sits across from a woman wearing a funny hat. He is frantically reading through the pages of the various books at his disposal. He finds the reference he is looking for, but it is not clear. “It is technically against the rules, it is barely within the realm of possibility, but the idea is so creative…” the man murmurs to himself. Exasperated, the man smiles a crooked grin and explains, “Well you can certainly try… give me an acrobatics check.” The woman throws a piece of plastic resin on to the table. The dice reads, “18.” The man sighs and then laments, “fine… how do you want to do this?” The table erupts in cheers, as high-fives are given from the others around the table. The woman adjusts her hat, as she gleefully explains how her character will use the momentum of several falling barrels to move across the map in a single turn without having to use all her character’s movement. As a “Dungeon Master” (DM) for the tabletop role playing game, Dungeons and Dragons (D&D), I can say without a doubt that many DMs have encountered extremely similar events as the one described above. The choice to be a stringent rule-follower without leniency can be a source of much resentment between the DM and the players around the table. Likewise, to completely ignore the rules and simply let players do whatever they want offers no challenge, no reason to play. In terms of D&D rule enforcement, as is with many events in life, the choice of always being either a “Harsh Disciplinarian” or the lenient, “Laissez Faire Guide” is a false dichotomy. Instead, seeking balance between the two choices based first on the overall needs of the players, second on the needs of the story, and third on requirements and rules of the game should be the norm.
Session 1: What is the Relationship between, Players, Games and Rules?
The 19th century philosopher and founder of modern cultural history, John Hughes once wrote, “Play is older than culture, for culture, however inadvertently defined, always presupposes human society and animals have not waited for man to teach them their playing.” 1 Why do humans play? Is it instinctual? Bernard Suits was a Distinguished Emeritus Professor of Philosophy for the University of Waterloo and his essays are in part responsible for the field of philosophy of games in the late 20th century. In his book, “The Grasshopper: Games, Life and Utopia,” Suits’ book uses Aesop’s fable about the grasshopper to argue that play is what we would do in a perfect civilization. He believed that in a world devoid of work, humans would still seek out challenges through play, suggesting that it is human nature to challenge ourselves.2 But is that the only reason someone plays a game? One YouTuber opined that “In a practical sense, games facilitate systemic thinking by getting us to view abstractions, but also engender creativity by getting us to play.”3 If true, these are essential tools for humanity to function as an intelligent race. This makes sense from an evolutionary level as to why humanity would develop play, but is there more to it than “games encourage outside the box thinking?” The landmark paper titled, “MDA: A formal approach to game design and game research” is one of the earliest attempts to formalize the field of video game design theory and it is fundamental to how modern game designers look at these systems. It serves to define the importance of mechanic, dynamics, and aesthetics of play and is instrumental to helping understand what players will expect out of a game. We will discuss more about dynamics and mechanics later, but first let us focus on aesthetics. Aesthetics of Play Defined
Term
Definition
Examples
Sense Pleasure
Enjoyment derived from how it stimulates the senses
The visuals of a game, sound, and music, feel of the dice, etc.
Fantasy
Enjoyment derived from the ability to step into a role that cannot be experienced in real life
Playing a game as a magic wielding sorcerer or rocks in the far flung reaches of outer space
Narrative
Enjoyment derived from game as drama, it is about the stories and experience gained
Heavily story driven games such as Last of Us, Dungeons and Dragons, Final Fantasy
Challenge
Enjoyment derived from overcoming an arbitrary obstacle
Platformers like Mario, or even drinking games like beer pong, or corn hole; social games like charades, etc.
Fellowship
Enjoyment from working cooperatively as a group to accomplish a goal
Team based or social games such as Among Us, the card game Spades; save the world mode on Fortnite
Competition
Enjoyment from showing dominance
Chess or Go, Battle royal games such as Fortnite or PubG or Call of Duty; Fallguys; darts Poker; Uno, Killer bunnies or Magic the Gathering;
Discovery
Enjoyment from uncovering the new or discovering news ways to play a game.
These can range from searching to find things to choose your own adventure Minecraft; Zelda Breath of the Wild; simple matching games; the board game Betrayal at the House on the Hill; or games like Fable; Dragon Age Inquisition; or Mass effect
Expression
Enjoyment from showing an aspect of one’s self; or games that allow full customization of characters
Creation games like Minecraft; role play games like fallout 4; world of warcraft or Fortnite
Submission (aka Abnegation)
Enjoyment from being able to “turn of the brain; and tune out the world” or what is also known as zone out factor.
Bejeweled; candy crush; the lever-pull games at casinos, solitaire, etc.
(Source: Portnow & Floyd, October 2012)5
Aesthetics are things like sense pleasure, fantasy, the narrative of the story, challenge, fellowship, discovery, expression, and something called submission.4 There is an additional aesthetic that most game designers also consider when designing games termed as “competition”.5 These are all reasons people play games and it is important to keep all these in mind when acting as a DM. The table above works to define these terms more appropriately and makes it easier to reference later. The reasons a player may want to play a game vary and change over time. If a DM can understand their players’ goals (i.e., what the player hopes to get out of the game) the DM will be able to understand why someone might want to perform a certain action, play a game, or want to ignore a certain rule in the first place. On that note, what are rules in games? Think about it… Games are weird… well I should say the act of playing a game… is weird. Suits once wrote in his article, for the “Philosophy of Science Association Journal,” "To play a game is to engage in activity directed towards bringing about a specific state of affairs, using only means permitted by rules, where the rules prohibit more efficient [means] in favor of less efficient means, and where such rules are accepted just because they make possible such activity."6 In other words, to play a game we create rules that prevent us from achieving a goal through the easiest means available. Instead, we make something more difficult and we play a game. For instance, in basketball, it would be far easier to simply carry the ball all the way to the basket instead of dribbling it. In D&D, there is a similar activity to dribbling. It is called a “dice roll.” It is something that players must make to see if they succeed or fail at a task. The player rolls a 20-sided die and tries to get above a certain score to succeed. Players can roll normal, with advantage, or with disadvantage. Rolling with advantage allows the player to roll the D-20 (the 20-sided die) twice and use the higher number. Rolling with disadvantage also has the player roll the D-20 twice, but they must take the lower number rolled instead. It introduces a chance of randomness, and players will find any excuse they can to avoid having to make a roll with "disadvantage." In his book, The Grasshopper, Suits argues that we do this because it is the act of overcoming that limitation that we find enjoyment. By taking on these restrictions and accepting these limitations, we take on what he coins as a "lusory attitude" which allows us to play the game as it is meant to be played. Suits would argue that by not playing the game according to the rules as written, the player would have only achieved a “quasi-victory” not really worthy of achievement. He also goes on to say that even the act of “failing to win the game by virtue of losing it implies an achievement, in the sense that the activity in question -- playing the game -- has been successfully, even though not victoriously, complete.”7 So, according to Suits, it’s better to follow the rules of the game and loose than to not follow the rules and win. It’s important to point out that the aesthetics of play had not yet been defined and Suits’ work mainly focused on the “challenge” aspect of play. This is where many sports and game philosophers begin to find fault with Suits. In the “Journal of Philosophy of Sport,” a rebuttal of Suits’ work by David Myers asks, “What if the goal of the player isn't to follow the rules or even play the game?”8 For instance, what happens if the player is motivated by competition and doesn’t care about rules so long as “they win?” While an extreme example, this paradox isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Therefore, focusing on just the challenge aesthetic of game play and simply playing the game “rules as written” can lead to a disconnect between what the player desires and the game itself. Jesper Juul, an Associate Professor in the School of Design at the Royal Danish Academy of Fine Arts, wrote in his textbook on video game design, “Rules specify limitations and affordances. They prohibit players from performing actions such as making jewelry out of dice, but they also add meaning to the allowed actions, and this affords players meaningful actions that were not otherwise available; rules give games structure”9 Basically, without rules we cannot even have play. However, if the player ignores the rules that player won’t be able to enjoy the full experience of the game, because the rules both afford the opportunity to enjoy the game and provide the obstacles in the first place. How the rules affect actual game play is where Mechanics and Dynamics come into play. (See, I told you we would get back to it eventually.) Mechanics are the rules and systems that govern chance to create the game we experience. Dynamics are how those rules come together to govern the strategies of that game. In D&D, an example of mechanics is how a player would have to roll a 20-sided dice to see if an action would succeed. Dynamics are the actions the player takes to manipulate the situation and give themselves advantage in the roll. Some examples of this are using a spell caster’s familiar, flanking an enemy in combat, using the bend luck trait, or lucky feat. This is akin to how the rules of poker dictate that bluffing is allowed (mechanics); but how the bluffing player conceals their tells and bets is entirely up to that player (dynamics). What happens when the player’s desired aesthetics and the mechanics don’t allow for the dynamics the player wants to use? This is where it falls on the DM to determine if the game can handle a little rule bending. In the Dungeon Master Guide’s introduction, it states “The D&D rules help you and the other players have a good time, but the rules aren’t in charge. You’re the DM, and you are in charge of the game…” However! It goes on to say, “The success of a D&D game hinges on your ability to entertain the other players at the game table.” What is a good way to approach this? Is it THE DM IS ALWAYS RIGHT, able to enforce their will on the players whenever it suits their need? Should the DM strictly enforce the rules and narrative of their planned story without the need to appease the players’ wants and desires?... well… The DM COULD do it, but it won’t be long before their players stop showing to game sessions. Just like the rules, without players, there is no game. Or as one notable professional DM and YouTuber once put it:
“The game you weave belongs to the players as much as yourself… so make sure to humor them every once in awhile by giving them a chance to be extraordinary" - Patrick "the Goddam DM" Tracy 10
Session 2: The Ethics of a Dungeon Master
So how does someone seek a balance between the rules and the players? Enter situational ethics. Situational ethics, first proposed by philosopher and first professor of ethics at Harvard Medical School, Joseph Fletcher,** is an attempt to seek a middle ground between two ethical schools of thought: Legalism and Antinomianism. In legalism, morality must come from a strict set of rules that must be obeyed at all times and cannot be deviated from or broken for any reason. Antinomianism, on the other hand, is the idea that there should be no rules, you should be able to do what you want, whenever you want (lawless society). 11 In D&D terms, "Fanatical Legalism" would be similar to what many DMs would characterize as "Lawful Stupid," where a certain player's character enforces harsh judgement without ever showing mercy to those who would break the law regardless of the circumstances… even to the detriment of the party… or that small band of orphans who were stealing food out of desperation… Likewise, in D&D terms, "Fanatical Antinomianism" would be similar to what DMs would characterize as "Chaotic Stupid," where a player's character completely ignores consequences an action would bring and simply act according to their whims… even when it's an obvious trap… that has a 100 percent chance to damage not only your character, but the other players as well. Fletcher's work states that the morally right thing to do depends on the situation and can change throughout the situation, but at the same time, there is a universal “moral law” on which to base our actions that he called "Agape" love. Derived from the Greek word of similar pronunciation, Fletcher sought to define Agape as a means to show love for your fellow human. In his book titled “Situational Ethics,” Fletcher states, "All laws, rules, principles, ideals and norms, are only contingent, only valid if they happen to serve love."12 Or to put it a different way, a desire to see your fellow human be happy is and should be the goal. It is not really a feeling, but an attitude to do what is best for others. In terms of the D&D alignment chart, this would be easiest to define as whether someone is "Good" or "Evil." Whereas a “good character” is someone who acts for the betterment of others regardless of personal motivations, conversely an “evil character” acts out of their own self-interests regardless of how this action would affect others. Those that follow the concept of Agape would be “good characters.” Those that do not, would be evil. This is where the so-called “Rule of Cool” comes into play. Mathew Mercer, an extremely acclaimed DM, comedian, and writer of D&D’s “Explorer’s Guide to Wild Mount,” and host of the show “Critical Roll,” defines the Rule of Cool as a trope in the D&D community that is “the willing suspension of disbelief for the sake of a cool moment.”13 It’s used in moments where the use of an certain object or action would be nearly impossible according to the mechanics of the game, but because it is a “cool dynamic,” the DM allows it. But what is “cool?” Is it a player that is normally too nervous to speak up being able to do something unique on time despite it being against the rules? Is it a player that has spent considerable time perfecting a skill and being able to perform a truly “epic task” (such as the jumping across barrels to effectively triple their movement distance)? Is it succeeding in persuading the main villain to befriend the party through a series of increasingly complex but successful rolls? In all these situations listed above, there is a common theme that ties all the principles of what this paper is trying to address together in a simple phrase. As a DM, before making a ruling ask, "How will this decision affect the final enjoyment of all at the table?" Now a DM cannot give the players everything they want. Doing so cheapens the truly extraordinary moments. Finding the right balance can be difficult. That is why the flow chart above is suggested when trying to figure out whether it is a good time to “Remember the Rule of Cool.” https://i.redd.it/f362ghdjlqf61.png
Session 3: “Well… You can Certainly Try”- Some Famous DM
Finally, we can discuss how the desire to make the most enjoyable experience for everyone at the table plays out using real-world examples and advice from some of the most well-known DMs in the business. Using the concept of Situational Ethics’ Agape, we can see how to work in the rule of cool using eight tips for Dungeon Masters. Tip 1: It is advised to know your audience. Not everything is as it seems, so be sure to pay attention to your players and look at them when you are describing the situation. Make note of how they react when tones or themes change. Remember those reasons people play games mentioned earlier? This is where those come into play. Additionally, while not something outright suggested, it is nevertheless important to take team dynamics into account. The book “Four lenses unfolded” describes how various personality types can interact and work to solve problems. In it, the book describes four primary temperaments: Green (analytical), Blue (empathetic), Orange (adventurous), and Gold (goal oriented). Unlike most other personality tests, four lenses theory suggests that while we have a dominant personality at any given moment, other aspects of these personalities can manifest as well. Being able to draw on these aspects at will is the mark of a “mature” individual.14 As a DM/referee, coach, or manager, being able to do this and adapt to the needs of the players will take player engagement to the next level. Tip 2: Establishing and Managing Expectations Early and Often, Works to Prevent Disappointment and Confusions Mercer once put it this way, “Establish early on in your campaign how much of a level of crazy you're willing to allow. This allows for players to better understand what to try for and what not to try for.”15 Whether you are a teacher, referee, coach, parent, supervisor, or mentor, establishing expectations with those involved mitigates problems before they arise. One of the main tools DM’s have for this is that is recommended by Mercer, as well as nearly every DM in existence on the internet, is the “Session Zero.” Session Zero is a term used to describe a session where no play occurs but instead rules that will be used and rules that will be ignored or bent is established. It also serves to establish a theme the players can expect from any campaign. Using the first chapter of the DMs guide will help considerably in establishing this. Additionally, one of the best guides for this is laid out by the DM YouTubers known as “the Dungeon Dudes” in their video titled, “How to Run a Session Zero for Dungeons and Dragons 5e.”16 But always keep Agape in mind throughout this process. In this step, it means actively listening to the players. The DM may want a gritty, tough, realistic, and challenging campaign. But if the players want a high fantasy power trip, some adjustments are going to need to be made to the campaign. Listening to players and changing the plans accordingly is not easy. It requires A LOT of humility and ego suppression. Especially when the DM has already designed how the game is going to go… which leads us to the next tip. Tip 3: It is important to develop a healthy relationship with failure. Celebrated author Orson Wells once wrote; “If you want a happy ending, that of course, is dependent of where you stop your story.”17 This applies to both the players and DM. There will be times when the DM is tempted to ignore the rules because the consequences seem dire. The player fails an athletics check trying to use a dynamic that had a high-risk, high-reward moment. Now the player’s character is doomed to fall several hundred feet down a ravine to what is likely certain doom in lava. But this isn’t the end. That player’s character is most likely dead, but their death could result in a moment of drama and tension for the players. It’s the very real chance of failure that encourages players to think critically about a situation and experience excitement and tension. Brennon Lee Mulligan, the DM of the D&D streaming show, “Dimension 20,” put it this way… “if you are not allowing for failure, you are essentially just telling a story,” and thus never actually playing a game (make-believe as Suits would put it). 18 Another thing to consider is that through failure, we can often find comedy as well as ways to encourage players to think critically and find new escapes, 19 at least according to the mind behind the “Replaying the Curse of Strahd” videos, Benjamin (Puffin Forest) Scott. Lastly, Mercer strongly advises that if a DM allows too many “rule of cool moments” to happen in succession, the weight of the moments and consistency of the game will be lost. 20 Players that are afraid to fail will not try. Mercer explains that “Most role play games are designed to forge a heroic story (showing feats of legend) so let the players try! Let them fail, and occasionally succeed!” This is where his catch phrase “you can certainly try” comes from. 21 Tip 4: Whenever Possible, Avoid Taking Things Personally In his lecture on not talking things personally, soccer referee and public speaker, Frederik Imbo, explained there are two sides of a coin to keep in mind when trying not to take things personally: “It is not about you,” and “it is about you.” 22 Look at the other person’s intentions not just yours. With that in mind, it is okay to give yourself empathy and speak up. When someone seems upset with you, ask what are they hoping to get out of this releasing of emotions? Additionally, ensure that your pride isn’t preventing you from making the correct call. Yes I am talking about Ego again; it is that important! It is the DM’s world, but it is the players’ game. Without both, the world and the game, you do not have D&D. D&D has a weird paradox of being both a story and a game. It has both a narrative as its core premise, but it is, in fact, also a multi-player game. Without at least two people you cannot really have much fun. DMs should make sure that everyone at the table enjoys themselves. Tip 5: Mechanics are important precisely because they are a means of delivering impactful story moments. Remember that rule of cool concept? Extraordinary moments don’t happen often, and this is by design of the mechanics of the game. Humans remember the novel and unique way more often than the mundane. Mundane things tend to blend into the background. It’s the unexpected moments that highlight the more impactful story moments, especially if that moment is tied to strong emotions.23 With that in mind, Mulligan suggests looking at where the players are putting their resources before deciding how to rule on a situation. Have they invested experience points/levels into a specific skill that is relevant to this situation instead of just something they can use in combat? If so, reward them for wanting to do something that is a part of the world you are creating together. 24 Tip 6: Discourage metagaming but allow it whenever possible. Look for any and every excuse you can to give advantage on an arcana check by setting the DC low (10 or higher). If the player succeeds, they can use what they know… they are going to anyway, but at least then they can talk about it with the other players. According to the DM guide Chapter 8, metagame thinking means “thinking about the game as a game,” Examples would be thinking “the DM wouldn’t throw such a powerful monster at us so early in the game, so we will surely be saved and not have to take this fight seriously,” or “the DM spent A LOT of time describing that door… maybe we should search it again!” 25 The problem with metagaming isn’t really about what advantage the players are getting in the game. The problem is that manipulation of the dynamics, when used to extremes, can spoil the plot line of the cumulative story being told. This can lessen the drama and tension elements resulting in decreased enjoyment of those involved. Additionally, it can create a dynamic where the DM is constantly having to escalate encounters to challenge the player, encouraging a potentially toxic “DM vs player” mentality. For instance, how would a street orphan barbarian with no formal education and a wisdom of …let’s say very low…be able to know that liches phylactery is the source of their power. The solution here depends on why the players are playing this specific game. Is it the narrative of the story? Is it discovery? If these aren’t anywhere close to the reasons these players came to the game table in the first place, the narrative is not going to take as much of a factor into decisions. Metagaming in this instance isn’t going to be much of a problem. Tip 7: Keep in mind, the ending is “A” destination, but the story is about how you get there. A DM may hold off the extra cool moments for the final parts of the game, keeping their players in complete darkness and grit the entire way. However, without at least some levity along the way, some “water for the weary travelers,” as Mercer put it, they may not make it to the end.26 So, do not be afraid to relax the rules from time to time to give them those cool moments, but do so sparingly lest the destination lose its luster as well. Always keep in mind it’s about the enjoyment of crafting and playing in the world together that makes this, or really any game, fun. Tip 8: When all else fails… take a break and have the Tarrasque attack the party. When all else fails, roll two D-20s out of players’ views… fake a worried expression… role a D-100 (also out of player’s view) look over the score concerned as you pour through your notes… then explain sorrowfully… “I’m sorry… The Tarrasque has risen and has attacked the party. Everyone roll initiative.” This is actual advice from the DM manual. It is right under “faking illness and running away.”27 The point is this: never be afraid to pause or call a game when it’s over or needed. Maybe something incredibly uncomfortable for a player has happened. Maybe the DM has reached the end of what they were able to prepare for that session. Perhaps everyone is hungry or needs a bathroom break. Maybe the entire table has gotten to a point where no one can agree on anything and team dynamics are breaking down. That game world will always be there… but your friends won’t. Cherish that moment and make as many good moments as possible. Additionally, taking breaks both in-game and in the real world allow for quiet moments. These allow for the greater moments to shine through and the players will enjoy their experience more. https://i.redd.it/1ncu361zlqf61.png The graphic above serves to summarize the eight tips above and show their relationship with the narrative, enjoyment, and the rules when put in the context of situational ethics. From this graph, the relationship between the eight tips and how they play into the narrative, enjoyment, and rules of the game can be seen. Each of the tips can influence many parts of the game but they are intended to primarily influence the aspect of the game they are adjacent to. “Knowing the players” should influence the narrative and what kind of enjoyment the players receive. What mechanics are used to enable the game is causally related to how the rules are used and so on. Please note that Agape is at the center as, with every decision a DM makes, considering what is best for the players should be central to the experience of any game. The Epic Conclusion Through crafting a game-world together with your players, a DM has the potential to tap into one of the greatest traditions humanity has: camaraderie with friends. At the end of the day, these players are your friends, or at the very least your fellow human beings. As such, you should want what is best for them. Through trials, hardships, and drama, we get to put the punctuation on the moments of excitement, joy, happiness, and bliss. It is okay if the player does not get exactly what they want, so long as they still had enjoyment. This is because getting everything we expect is sometimes boring. However, always keep in mind that at the end of the day, games are about having fun. How that happens is up to the players, the DM, and whether the rules were used to enhance the experience or not. It’s possible to find that balance by asking these questions in order: “How will this decision affect: the final enjoyment of all at the table? the narrative? the rules in the future?” 1 Huizinga, Johan . "Homo Ludens". Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd. (1980), pp. 1., accessed January 19, 2021. http://art.yale.edu/file_columns/0000/1474/ homoludens_johan_huizinga_routledge_1949.pdf 2 Suits, Bernard, “The Grasshopper: Games, Life and Utopia,” Broadview Press. Ed. 3. (November 29, 2005): 54–55. Accessed December 31, 2020. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/803547.The_Grasshopper 3 The Game Overanalyzer, The Aesthetics of Play | Why We Play Games, and the Search for Truth and Beauty in Game Design. The Game Overanalyzer. (January 11, 2020), accessed 6 January 2021. Video 18:44. https://youtu.be/lONsZwjVDzg 4 Hunicke, Robin, Marc LeBlanc, and Robert Zubek. "MDA: A formal approach to game design and game research." Proceedings of the AAAI Workshop on Challenges in Game AI, vol. 4, no. 1, p. 1722. (2004). Accessed January 11, 2020 https://www.aaai.org/Papers/Workshops/2004/WS-04-04/WS04-04-001.pdf 5 Portnow, James; Floyd, Daniel; Aesthetics of Play- Redefining Genres in Gaming. Extra Credits; (October 17, 2012), Video 9:13. Accessed December 30, 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uepAJ-rqJKA&list=PL3N9QD4_yI-BlnwWUL8hhjpKgqRul3xAa&index=11 6 Suits, Bernard. “Discussion: Games and Paradox.” Chicago University Press. Philosophy of Science Association Journal, Vol 36, no. 3 (September 1, 1969). pg 316–.321. Accessed December 30, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/186226 7 Suits, Bernard. “Discussion: Games and Paradox (1969) 8 Myers, David. “Game as Paradox: A Rebuttal of Suits.” Journal of the philosophy of Sport 39, no. 1 (May 1, 2012). Accessed December 30, 2020. https://search-ebscohost-com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=ip&db=s3h&AN=87342252&site=ehost-live&scope=site. 9 Juul, Jesper. "Half-Real: Video Games between Real Rules and Fictional Worlds", MIT Press, (Aug 19, 2011) pp.57-59 10 Tracy, Patrick. DM Tips: The Rule of Cool. Fantasy Bango. (October 20, 2017). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 2:23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8aAIFalx6s 11 Fletcher, Joseph F. Situation Ethics: The New Morality. Westminster John Knox Press, (1997). Page 17-26 (accessed January 20, 2021) http://bit.ly/Googlescholar_SItuational_Ethics **Please note that just because Fletcher’s Situational Ethics is used prominently, this is not an endorsement of all his views. Fletcher’s work has been used to justify terrible atrocities, such as eugenics, this should serve to point out that any philosophy taken to extremes can lead to terrible outcomes 12 Fletcher, Joseph F. Situation Ethics: The New Morality. (1997) 13 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). Geek & Sundry. (February 16, 2016). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video. 5:52 https://youtu.be/fWZDuFIYkf0 14 Bryce, Nathan K., “Four Lenses Unfolded: A Deeper Understanding of Temperament Values,” Insight; (January 29, 2002,). 15 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016). 16 McLaughlin, Kelly; Martin, Monty. "How to Run a Session Zero for Dungeons and Dragons 5e". Dungeon Dudes. (September 3, 2020), Accessed 12 30, 2020. Video. https://youtu.be/2MA-z5Ai-bQ 17 Wells, Orson, "The Big Brass Ring." Santa Teresa Press (1987, January 1) 1-148 18 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) | Adventuring Academy Season 2 | Ep. 16 |” Adventuring Academy. Dimension (2020, December 28). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 1:24:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IbVxEKpipo 19 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) (2020) 20 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016).. 21 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016) 22 Imbo, Frederik, "How not to take things personally? | Frederik Imbo | TEDxMechelen" TEDx Talks; (March 4, 2020) accessed 10 Jan 2021, video 17:36 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnJwH_PZXnM&t=381s 23 Kensinger, Elizabeth. Remembering the Details: Effects of Emotion. US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health. (May 4, 2009) Accessed 2021, January 30 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2676782/ 24 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) (2020) 25 Mearls, Mike, and Jeremy Crawford. "Dungeons Master's guide". Renton, WA: Wizards of the Coast. (2014) accessed 29 January 2021 https://www.dndbeyond.com/sources/dmg/running-the-game#MetagameThinking 26 Mulligan, Brennan; Mercer, Matthew. Building Your Own Campaign Setting (with Matthew Mercer) | Adventuring Academy. Dimension 20. (2019, April 3) Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 57:01 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sig8X_kojco&t=2867s 27 Mearls, Mike, and Jeremy Crawford. "Dungeons Master's guide". Renton, WA: Wizards of the Coast. (2014)-accessed 20 January 2021. https://www.dndbeyond.com/sources/dmg
Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion! Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types: LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments. Team, We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED. The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there. Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range). Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too! Now let us get into it: Leadership I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left. Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company? Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense. It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job. In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below. SPACE Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the new space race. In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget. Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B. Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel. LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO) The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages. There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO. SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG) The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector. The top 6 holdings of ITA are: Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46% Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84% Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62% General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78% Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74% Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64% As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress. Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending. Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side. Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog. Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63. General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT. Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129. Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog. The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more. FREE CASH FLOW Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow. HEADWINDS New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block. Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets. Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic). TAILWINDS Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins? International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority. 5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract. TRADE IDEAS Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway. Share price today: $321.82 Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean) Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26 Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot). LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy. LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat. SOURCES https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/ https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/ https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/ https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988 https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646 https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/ https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a
"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)
I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to. Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547 I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can. I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts. Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T
Intro
"The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
"I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
"For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
"We're spread way too thin."
"If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
Widespread match fixing
The Pandemic
"People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
"People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
"To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
"Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
"People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
"It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.
CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association
"Who does this union really fucking serve?"
RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
"and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
"We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
"They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
"I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
"Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
"Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
"That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
He also says their rankings are a joke
"Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
"Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission
"They have been put in an impossible position."
RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
"ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
"Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
"Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
"They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
"They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
Also says more coaches being banned are coming
He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
"I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
"So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
"Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
Stream Sniping
"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"
RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
"Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
"ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
"All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?
Match Fixing
"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."
RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
"Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
"Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
"I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
"Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
"There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
"It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
"It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
"I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
"That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
"All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
"I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."
North America
"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."
RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
"was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."
Talent
"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."
RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."
Valve
"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"
Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
"It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
"Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
"People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."
Closing Statements
"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."
RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
"We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
"There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
"How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
"Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
"The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
"If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
"They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
"Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
"This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
"You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
"Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
"Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
"You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
"I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
"I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
"I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."
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