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I introduced my dad to the stock market and put him in stable ETFs. He sold them and now he's playing it like it's a casino. He's risking his and my mothers future and this can't end well. I've talked to him but he won't listen. What can I do?
Edit: My father is retired with nothing to fall back on other than myself and my brother.
submitted by WalyWal to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]
55+ stocks related to the online gambling and sports betting (iGaming) space — sportsbook, pureplay iGaming, casino/gaming operators, tech providers, SPACs, media/lead gen, ETFs
submitted by victorlei1 to InvestmentClub [link] [comments]
How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
| Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us: - When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
- The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know. So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either. THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING: Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because... ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER. Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects. Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all... Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time): https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder: - $APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
- Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
- $CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
- $TLRY gets a UK deal
- $TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
- There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
- This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
- Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price. THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons: NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION. IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere. SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent. Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure. submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] |
LMT: A Deep Dive
Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion!
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types:
LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments.
Team,
We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED.
The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there.
Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range).
Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too!
Now let us get into it:
Leadership I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left.
Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company?
Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense.
It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job.
In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below.
SPACE Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the
new space race.
In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget.
Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B.
Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel.
LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO) The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages.
There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO.
SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG) The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector.
The top 6 holdings of ITA are:
Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46%
Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84%
Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62%
General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74%
Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64%
As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress.
Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending.
Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side.
Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog.
Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63.
General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT.
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129.
Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog.
The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more.
FREE CASH FLOW Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow.
HEADWINDS New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block.
Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets.
Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic).
TAILWINDS Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins?
International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority.
5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract.
TRADE IDEAS Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway.
Share price today: $321.82
Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean)
Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26
Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot).
LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy.
LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat.
SOURCES https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/ https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/ https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/ https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988 https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646 https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/ https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a submitted by Estri_Grobbulus to investing [link] [comments]
Out of the loop? What's going on and what's going to happen, what you can do.
Alright kids, fellow retards, and wall street shills. I'm going agaisnt the grain here, but I'm a fellow looser dropping tens of keys for years with you guys, so just inverse me, I'm a good counter indictor.
What's going on? We won... kinda. The short squeeze and gamma squeeze both happened. Yesterday market broke. Unfortunately the real winners are big players like
BlackRock, Vanguard.
To avoid it all going in flames Market Makers and then Clearing Houses (new things to learn for you I know) the real players just decided to excercise their contracts and require full deposits from their clients (the small fries like WebBull and Robinhood).
Have they not do that GME would be already orbiting Mars, not Moon. Fucking Mars. Wait no, fuck Mars, it'd be orbiting Pluto.
The problem is with the infinite squeeze is ... nothing is fucking infinite. Sure you can
say that the potential for losses for shorts is infinite, except when you are over 100% of losses and you are a corporation, the worst that happens is you close the door, and put up a sign saying "fuck you. sue me". You must understand that. We've liquidated few funds, we'll liquidate few more, but in the end there's simply not enough shares to go around.
Ok. So what's going to happen? Next week price will go up. Definitely 🚀🚀🚀 to the stratosphere(1000+), maybe 🚀🚀🚀 to the Moon(5000+), unlikely 🚀🚀🚀 to Mars (10k-20k).
Then the real players: Vanguards, BlackRock will start dumping mass amount of shares.
Now listen to this. Did you ever wonder how 130% short interest was created?
Alice has 1 share of GME. Bob comes and borrows a share, and then immidietly sells it to the Celine. Celine then lends it to Daniel, who then goes areound and immidietly sells it again to Edgar. Voila: 200% short interest out of 1 share with no naked short selling.
BUT it works the other way too. Short seller Bob, buys a share because he has to, swallows a loss, but you know what? now he has a share, a share that's going up, so he waits one day and sells it for a profit ... to short seller Daniel, who turns around and does the same thing. Unwinding two shorts. Those two shorts still need to be returned .. eventually, but they can play the momentum as well as you do. So even getting their opsions excercised is not the end for them,
It takes days to unwind those kind of trades, that's why this squeeze will take days if not weeks.
So should you 💎🙌 to win? You'd think that
Red is You look numbers even match up! The problem is that GME is not going back to 200 or 300 at which you bought in. It's going back to 20-40 in few months (yea, yea, shitron, they are right the timing is just off, which is the same as being wrong).
Now the hedge funds will get liquidated, sooner or later, if not on GME then on the next meme stock. But they do not
only short. They als ohave long positions, those positions will get liquidated - that's why APPL is selling off among other things. What does that mean?
Wide market selloff. Markets
will go down, and those people that invest in APPL do have stop losses. The stop losses will trigger, market will go down more.
Ok retard so what should I do?
You're playing casino with disposable money? 💎🙌 till Mars
You're here to support Vanguard (because their ETFs are RAD) and want to fuck the system? 💎🙌 till Mars
You are just here for the ride and memes? 💎🙌 till Mars
You are here because your Aunt gave you some pocket money? 💎🙌
You are here because you got stimulus check and you're up more then 200%? Sell enough to take out your initial investment then 💎🙌 till Moon
You are here because you're bored? Are you using big boy exchange and can actually buy? Sell GME 400$ - Buy 2 * GME 200$. Rinse. Repeat. Trade a fucking volatility because it's stupid and it's jsut going up, so buy every dip, then sell ... to buy more dips.
Bread Line/Wendys: Is it your "fuck you money?" 💎🙌
Is it your financial independence money? Sell half of it for 400-500$ rest of it is now your fuck you money so 💎🙌
Don't get caught bag holding for Vanguard and Black Rock. Short the wide markets.
Positions: Short S&P, Short Nasdaq, Short DOW, Long Gold & Silver. Long the meme: GME, BBBY, AMC, BB, Nok, etc.
PS. Remember WS is not your friend, but people who trade millions of options and can
consistently post loss porn for millions of dollars are not your friends either. Don't let them indoctrinate you into holding the bag for likes of Vanguard or BlackRock.
PPS. Obviously I fucking like the stock, and don't like broad market, not a financial advise, I don't
know what's going to happen, etc.
submitted by swistak84 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Why YNABers aren't stressed about GME
So, I jumped aboard the hype train and bought some GME like many a redditor. I did not sell at the top of the gamma squeeze. Currently I'm down about $150 from the modest amount I put in over the course of a week.
Over at WSB there is an interesting echo chambefrenzy going on. Some are whining that they bought at the top of the peak and lost out, some are anxiously hoping the stock will somehow go back up by Friday, still others, like me, are pretty much not bothered either way. Many diamond and paper emojis.
Much like a trip to the casino, I budgeted for it, as YNAB dictates I do for all things. I moved $500 from my vacation fund to a new "Diamond Hands" category, and then promptly marked the transfer as an outgoing transaction in that category. Now, that money doesn't exist in my budget.
For any YNABers whose interests in stocks beyond ETFs and Index funds has been piqued, I would suggest you do the same if and when you open your brokerage account. Treat it like a fun category for a trip to Vegas, because yes, speculative trading even on a small scale is fun as hell, and no, you can't depend on that money to be there at market open tomorrow.
Yes, there is due diligence that can be done so you are making a more logical bet than "that guy on Reddit said they like this stock," but no amount of research will eliminate risk from purchasing stocks, much less the more complicated options. So don't be a dummy and throw your life savings on a wild bet. Treat it like play money, and then when that graph turns angry red you'll still just be having fun.
As for me, I legitimately believe in the direction Gamestop wants to go, so I'll take my share bought at the bottom of Mondays dip and hold for the long haul. But if I never get that money back, I really don't care, my budget is doing just fine.
submitted by drawinfinity to ynab [link] [comments]
10 golden tips for WSB Newbies
Reading through some of the posts I can see how a lot of newbies have FOMO (fear of missing out). Post after post of losers making huge returns. Everyone is getting rich but you. Boofuckinghoo. The smart investor realizes it’s all hype. Some of it works, most of it doesn’t. To be successful you need to be able to recognize the difference and to do that, you need time, knowledge and practice.
Here are ten tips that can help you along the way.
Tip 1 - You don’t know shit
You’re going to lose your money. Don’t get suckered by reading posts about guys who made 1000% return in 5 minutes. For every one guy that posts his massive gains, 100+ suckers have lost their money. The first lesson to realize is that it’s way easier to lose money in the market than to make money.
Tip 2 - Understand how money flows in the market
Money moves from the idiots to the knowledgable, from the impatient to the patient. Any dummy can make money short term. But to make money long-term and truly grow a portfolio, you have to be armed with knowledge and a shit ton of patience.
Tip 3 - Play for the long term
The most important rule you need to follow religiously is NEVER FUCKING LOSE MONEY. Print it big, tape it to your wall. Your top responsibility is protecting your capital. YOLO is a stupid play. 99% of you are going to bet at the wrong time with the wrong stock. Calm the fuck down and work on a long term strategy. You have decades dummy.
Tip 4 - Time is on your side, but not much else
The market never stops. The machine just churns and churns. Rich to poor, poor to rich, it just keeps on turning and turning. There are ALWAYS opportunities. Another IPO. Another MEME turd. FOMO is for fools. Miss a run? Big fucking deal. There’s another one around the corner. You have plenty of time to learn, test, and grow your capital.
Tip 5 - Paper Trading
Paper trading is a simulation. It behaves exactly like a real account with real active data but it’s all practice. No real money exchanges. It’s a great way to learn, to see how shitty you’re going to do without losing a penny. DO THIS FOR TWO YEARS. Take whatever capital you have right now and buy some long term ETFs or solid ass stocks with minimal risk. Keep adding to it EVERY paycheck. Build up some capital for when you’re ready to trade for real. Take two years to learn how to trade, watch your paper portfolio go to zero a couple dozen times, read and follow the news, WSB, Stocktwits, etc. Ask questions, test out your strategies. You’ll thank me two years from now.
Tip 6 - Understand taxes
Big difference between short term and long term capital gains. Uncle Sam loves you short timers. Paying taxes is for suckers.
Tip 7 - No one knows shit
There is no crystal ball, no one has the “inside track”, and only believe 10% of what you read. Be very fucking skeptical. About everything. Social media, analysts, CEOs, news, all if it, be fucking skeptical. It’s all manipulation. Don’t even trust Buffett. You are the guardian of your capital. Everyone wants to take it it away from you. Understand that and you won’t get suckered so easily.
Tip 8 - Learn to read fundamentals and understand valuations
As much as the market today feels like a casino, the underlying foundation of the market is investing, not gambling. With every stock you buy you’re buying a piece of a business. Learn to read fundamentals. Do they make money? Are they growing? Do they have debt? How are their competitors valued? Do they make more money today than they did 5 years ago? How will they make more? How do they return capital to shareholders? And on and on and on. Learn motherfuckers. Earnings per share. P/E rations. Intrinsic value. Net income. Figure out formulas for valuing stocks. Is TSLA worth over 250x earnings? Is WFC undervalued at 13x earnings? Investing blindly because big_dick_loser said so in a post is beyond idiotic. Just burn your money, you’ll have more fun.
Tip 9 - Get rich schemes are for suckers
Remove the bookmark for Ferrari. You ain’t getting one anytime soon. Play fucking smart. Go long. Think in decades, not days. You’re not smart enough to day trade and beat the system. Not long-term anyways. Most of you won’t beat the market over 10 years. So be fucking smart. Paper trade until you can consistently prove gains month after month. When you’re ready to trade for real, dip in slowly. Fuck FOMO. Fuck YOLO. Remember, time is on your side. Compound that shit.
Tip 10 - Discipline and dedication
Like anything in life, to be successful you have to fucking work at it. Easy money never lasts. Dig in, learn, practice, rinse and repeat. Be motivated to learn how to invest, take the time to study, read, test and constantly improve. Be disciplined with your money. It’s fucking hard to make, easy to lose. Protect that shit.
--
For those of you this resonates with, you’ll be fine long term. Do the fucking work. For those of you who love chasing the fantasy, good luck, I mean it. It’s a tough fucking pill to swallow watching your account get dwindled down to zero. Nothing tastes worse that losing all your money.
Peace.
submitted by Whocares2020 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Going to be making my first purchases tomorrow.
My wife and I have each decided to take $100 and see what we can do with it in the stock market. We are going about this kind of like how we do with a casino, once it's gone thats it and if either of us do well then thats a huge bonus. Let me preface what I am about to post and say I am by no means an expert and I am not meaning this as advice in any way. I would really just like everyone's thoughts on if I am going about this at least rationally and if there is anything I have missed that may help me make a better informed decision.
I have been going over a lot of posts on this subreddit and trying to do my own DD on everything I look up. Here are the 3 I am going to buy into tomorrow when eTrade finally releases my transfer for use. (3 day hold is a bit to long eTrade, my bank released the funds Tuesday)
- 200 Shares of POVERTY DIGNIFIED INC COM (PVDG). I have been looking over this and while they don't have a lot of news worthy activity I think what they do have going for the is going to continue to do well in the days to come, especially with the potential for the new strain of Covid supposedly coming this way. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poverty-dignified-inc-closes-transaction-140000968.html They have also done very well with a steady climb over the last month with a much steeper increase in the last few days going from sub 1 cent to almost 3 cents a share. My only concern is their outstanding shares of 2.3B. That seems huge to me and I am a little hesitant that they are a pump and dump almost at the peak of the pump.
- 200 Shares of BRAZIL MINERALS INC COM NEW (BMIX). This one a came across in another post early after joining this subreddit and have been following ever since. They just sealed the deal on 2 new Lithium exploration contracts in Brazil. The soon to be focus in the US on clean energy ramping up with the new administration this seems like a great bet. They had been steady flat sub 1 cent until inauguration day and then have been on a steady climb to almost 5 cents a share. Even spiking at one point to 8 cents a share. Just like PVDG though they have an outstanding share amount of 2B and a market cap of $96M. They at least have legit news though that may be pushing their stock price up.
- 2 Shares of SPINNAKER ETF (THCX). I know its not a lot but this ETF covers quite a few cannabis players, 2 of which, are about to make a major merge to be the largest of their kind in the world TLRY and APHA. This also goes back to the new US administrations more pro stance on cannabis as a whole and a lot more states looking to legalize, especially for medicinal purposes. Their top ten holdings are GRWG VFF WEED APHA CRON GWPH SMG TLRY AMRS FAF . One of these, forgive me I can't remember which one, is the largest player in cannabis product packaging. All of the ones I have looked into are headed on the way up.
Thank you all and thank you for any additional info.
TLDR: I am buying PVDG, BMIX and THCX and just wanted to see if there in anything I have missed about these.
Edit 1: As a result of al the replies to this thread I have changed up my strategy considerably. I bought 10shares this morning to a non-otc stock TTOO and am doing ok. Have already seen a little gain and a little loss but as a whole am pretty happy. I have a buy request for tptw but as of yet it hasn't dipped enough to meet my limit. I'm ok with this and it is only set for 1 day. If i get it cool if I don't that ok too. Thank you to all of you for all your support and information. This sub is awesome and hopefully I can post in the future the gains I have made with my purchases.
submitted by Gnobodyuknow to pennystocks [link] [comments]
Fuck you media - Why GME is more than a trade (from german wsb)
// I posted this on the German Wallstreetbets subreddit earlier today and got a hint that a translated version would be relevant for you guys as well. The good
https://www.reddit.com/useatticus_marmorkuchen has thankfully translated the text and replaced a few German terms with the American terms. You can find the original thread here:
https://www.reddit.com/mauerstrassenwetten/comments/l6s69h/fickt_euch_medien/ - Stay strong my retards!
Hello everyone,
as we all know, the majority of mainstream media is now aware of our situation and they are calling us gamblers and „internet kids“ who don’t understand the market. Perhaps this is due to billionaire market manipulation, perhaps it is what they really think about us. Either way, it makes me fucking mad.
I’m well in my 30s now, worked for over 10 years and did everything they expected of me: A bachelor and master in engineering, then even an MBA after that. I started work-live at 22 and did my two masters degrees simultaneously, just so I can start growing my 401k as early as possible.
By now I make 140 000 $ a year. During all this time I industriously invested in ETFs and the like. I even bought a few cryptos here and the odd share there. Every two years I get a letter telling me that I just earned another 2 points for my pension fund and that in the future I will be eligible to receive my long awaited retirement money. Roughly 3 000 $ per month (before tax).
3 000 $? This is about 26% of my current monthly income. This is a fucking joke. And you know what drives me mad? I will have to tax it 100%. I don’t profit from all the tax cuts boomers got in the 90s and early 00s.
Do you understand what I want to tell you? Do you get it now? We can already see, that all future generations are fucked. And meanwhile we are bailing out boomers who back in the days could afford to buy a house with a stupid 9to5 where all you had to do was clock in. With a safe job that didn’t require you to be flexible and work after hours. And these people now are telling us we are gamblers and we „should just work hard“ so we can earn our property.
Now let’s talk about GME. The internet kids that are fucking over the hedge-funds and wall-street. The inexperienced, stupid traders that violate the rules of the market.
Rules? It was you! You made these rules. You told us what we are allowed to do. And now we have found a stock, that we maybe even have a little nostalgia attached to (despite their terrible trade-in offers, it was always a place where you could hang out with friends to browse and it was a cool hotspot for gamers). And then we see the numbers, see the percentage of shorts, the incredible amount and wonder: is that justified? A company, that tries to reinvent itself and payed off their debt. And we realize, that the stock was perhaps a bit underrated.
So the internet starts to discuss. Numbers are collected, DDs are produced, analysis published. And we don’t need you for that. We don’t need CNBC, WSJ or The Post. All the information is on the internet, free for everybody to find. And finally even the last retard sees and understands: Your greedy hedgefunds fucked up. Big time. You fucked up and now we can profit.
And it makes me mad how we are getting blasted from all angles now, how they even consider halting the trade for 30 days. Where were you, when Lehman fucked us over? Where were you when the dotcom bubble burst? Where were you, when millions lost their homes over some bust in the casino full of fancy dressed suits that we call the wallstreet? Right…, I forgot. It only affected the guy from the street and not the real big players. Because them you bailed out.
And where are you now, when Corona (not only) financially fucked a majority of our generation and probably the generations to come? Where are the bailouts for students? Where is our rent bailout? 600 $? Is this a joke? Many people are lucky when they can even survive 1 month longer with that.
Fuck yourself. You don’t give us the chance for a secure retirement, you don’t give the young generations stability during the crisis. We are starting our working life with the perspective, that in the end we could very well end up in poverty and at the same time encourage normal people to make debt that they perhaps never will be able to repay.
And then you disgusting animals are mad when we buy GME after your old friends have become too greedy and we see our potential for good a good return.
But I will HOLD. I will never stop holding. And I will refuel the rocket. Because I can. And because with every single penny that I put into GME, some jerk on Wallstreet will choke and the suits start gasping.
submitted by Sad_Chemical_4211 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
The GUH Daily Recap of 02/02
Don't expect this to be a daily thing, I put daily, but I really meant news of the day. Also, not financial advice. Quick major news
- Jeff Bezos will step down as CEO in 21Q3.
- $GOOG EPS at $22,30 with revenues at $56,90B.
- $AMZN EPS at $14,09 with revenues at $125,6B
- Silver went down 8%, Gamestop went down 60%, AMC went down 41,2%. Short ladder quadra-witching attack?
- Pfizer estimates that its anti-covid vaccine will generate 15 billion dollars in revenue in the year 2021.
- The banking sector is going up a lot thanks to rising U.S. government bond yields.
What to look for tomorrow
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement
- Major Earnings report : Paypal, Qualcomm and Ebay
My thoughts
New retail money and its consequences on the overall market This whole squeezy thing made a lot of new people aware of the stock market. Most made money. I therefore predict that there's going to be a lot of new money in the market. That leads to 2 things :
- The market as a whole will go up
- The market will have much more volatility the more unemployed people there is (the more quarantined people there is also).
The first point is rather obvious in my opinion but the second one needs a little bit of explaining. It's based on the
Boredom Markets Hypothesis from Matt Levine. For short : people are bored, people want fun, people see the stock market as a fun casino, people trade.
Add to those 2 points the fact that
retail investors actually beat index funds during the first quarantine in 2020. This is a recipe for
success for the overall market :
- Retail investors are bored and trade fun stocks.
- Retail investors actually made money.
- They get their jobs back and they no longer have time to follow the market.
- They put their money, earnings and salary into boring ETFs or blue chips stocks.
I've said basically this on
this post about my 100k yolo. A little update on this : I really bought at the peak and after those great first days of the week, I barely broke even. So that sucks! Also, I might change for SPY calls as I think s&p500 will have a similar growth as Nasdaq but the SPY calls are giving better returns than Nasdaq calls for the same % change of the underlying.
Apple vs Facebook So, hum... Facebook, with 96% of its users using the mobile app, decided to declare war against the biggest smartphone manufacturer? That's going to go well... To be fair, they don't have that much choice when the big smartphone manufacturer decides to make it very transparent what data you have access to and how much data you collect.
So, as more young people realize the extend of the data collected by Facebook, and since they're not really big fans of the app anyway, they will most probably stop using it for other more fun social medias. If they can't attract new young people, that's the death of Facebook app's growth.
Add to that more and more controversies on the whole Whatsapp-Facebook merge, more and more people more aware of alternative apps, and probably some regulations coming in this year or 2022, this is not great for Facebook at all.
But for Apple? How is Apple going down? Let's take the insane worst-case scenario for apple that Facebook stops support for Iphones. You think people will stop using Iphones just to have a social media that they've been using just as an addictive habit?
And for ther other apps in the Apple Store profiting of data collecting, I'm sure they know how lucrative the Apple market is as those customers that spend the most amount of money on phones will most likely spend the most amount of money on other things. Paid apps will do well. Ads there will do extremely well. They just need to be less shady about how they collect their data. And if you stop support for your Apple app just because Apple shows how you collect your users' data, this will not be very good PR for you my guy.
So yes, Facebook is in a lot of trouble and seems to be slowly going downhill but it's not a new trend. Apple is just the one hurting them the most at the moment. So my long-term thesis (2 or 3 years) is that Facebook will be hurt by this with a maximum upside of a stock price being flat and apple is going to do really great in the coming years.
Bye!
submitted by ThisIsBartRick to wallstreetbetsOGs [link] [comments]
Because some of you bag holders should hear about real 🚀 🚀 🚀 strategies.
I would like to note that most of this was a reply to another comment. But I found the individuals comment very inportant, and want to share this point from their post in hopes of preventing someone from doing something stupid, again... DO NOT TRY TO EARN IT BACK AS QUICK AS POSSIBLE -ODDS SAY YOU WON'T SUCCEED!
I believe it is extremely important after a disastrous loss, to not repeat the mistake.... because, why risk the rest of your assets on similarly volatile plays?
You walked away with a [expensive] lesson learned... Hell I've been there and done that. Now, in the time it takes to build your account back up you are awarded real-world experience stripes, and an opportunity to actually LEARN about markets and trading strategies.
I have been trading on the market for years, and I would like to point out one of my greatest regrets: not investing in ARKK because when it was mentioned to me it was trading at only $20. But it's not too late, because as great funds do, it will continue to rise.
If you have lost half of your investment or more, that's got to be real tough to stomach. FOR YOUR FINANCIAL AND MENTAL HEALTH PLEASE SELL ASAP. TURN OFF THE APE BRAIN, AND SWITCH ON THE REASONABLE ADULT BRAIN. Now take a step back and bbrreeaatthh. Plan to write as much off on taxes as possible. Use the other half to recover your losses. ARK Invest offers a variety of ETFs. My personal favorite, ARKK has a track record of returning on investment to the tune of +30% quarterly. Even in the event of a dramatic market pullback, as happened last March, it can realistically return +100% on the year. I believe in Catherine Wood.
You've learned to not put all your eggs in one basket, especially when the basket has holes in it, and is on fire. $BANG stocks should never have seen more than 10% of your net assets -jusy like a play at the casino shouldn't. But recovery, ALMOST guaranteed recovery, is not too far away with an ARK Invest basket. And do not sell for at least 1 year.... because when you turn this loss into a respectable profit, you don't want to lose that much of your well earned moneys to the tax man!
Or, I guess, go ahead and put what you have left into another casino stock... because YOLO?
This is not, by any means, financial advice. This is what I believe would be my path to recovery, in a hypothetical scenario where I lose half my assets.
[Disclosure] I did well with GME, AMC, KOSS -but in the last few years I have suffered what were, at the time, significant losses. Also, I do not own any ARK Invest ETFs, though I must admit half the time I'm just stealing plays from what they publish (shh... don't tell anyone). I point out ARK because I can't think of a better investment for beginners that has such amazing returns, and future potential. Good luck to you folks.
submitted by scatterbraimedddd to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]
My 2021 Portfolio
Albeit a week late, I want to share my 2021 portfolio for documentation purposes and for whoever is interested. I aimed to balance risk in this portfolio with some growth names and legacy plays. Down to brass tacks, I am putting my money in the highest quality companies (in my view) across a diverse set of industries I find attractive. Some of these names are overvalued in the short term. However, I have realized I am not in the business of beating Wall Street’s pricing, but would rather hold high-quality companies that I believe will grow faster that the market in the long term. In other words, I am totally fine paying a short-term premium for growth and quality. Below is a summary of the portfolio and big picture reasoning behind each investment. I'm definitely open to any feedback.
Company | Ticker | Entry Price | Exposure |
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF | ARKG | $93.26 | 6.60% |
CrowdStrike | CRWD | $211.82 | 11.78% |
Disney | DIS | $181.18 | 10.53% |
Enphase Energy | ENPH | $175.47 | 7.98% |
Evolution Gaming Group | EVVTY | $101.02 | 12.77% |
Facebook | FB | $273.16 | 11.05% |
Redfin | RDFN | $68.63 | 10.41% |
Teladoc | TDOC | $199.96 | 9.60% |
Sea Ltd | SE | $199.05 | 14.09% |
Waste Connections | WCN | $102.57 | 5.19% |
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS: ARKG) - Invests in companies advancing genomics. The companies held in ARKG may develop, produce or enable: CRISPR, Targeted Therapeutics, Bioinformatics, Molecular Diagnostics, Stem Cells, Agricultural Biology.
- Innovative industry. Since 2003 the cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from nearly $3bn to less than $1,000. ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, genomic sequencing will become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce more science into healthcare decision making, enable personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery. ARK estimates that genomic sequencing revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5bn last year to $21bn in 2024.
- Cathie Wood. She’s a beast stock picker. Out of all the ETFs she runs, her closest competitor trailed by 60%. Her worst ETF still doubled investors' money. Her strategy is to make investments into companies that she considers incredibly transformational and she has seen success doing it.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) - Cybersecurity technology company that provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyber attack response services.
- Best in class technology. Remember about a week ago a bunch of Russian hackers breached SolarWinds? The same hackers also tried to hack CrowdSrike at the same time but were unsuccessful. I’ve wandered on to a bunch of cybersecurity forums, and the general consensus is CrowdStrike has developed the best cybersecurity solution by miles. CRWD is the undisputed leader in cybersecurity.
- “Pick-and-shovel” investment into the world’s increasing digitization. Even in the absence of COVID, cybersecurity remains a key component of the world’s increasing digitization as cyberthreats have been an ongoing issue from the onset of the internet. In the last decade we have seen a bunch of hacks where companies have exposed sensitive customer information. It seems companies are just starting to realize the importance of cybersecurity.
Disney (NYSE: DIS) - Worldwide entertainment company that you all are probably familiar with.
- Reopening trade. In 2019, parks generated 45% of total operating income for DIS. Full reopening and attendance in parks will be slow, but certainly benefit DIS when it happens. The company has been executing on several other segments in the meantime (i.e. streaming). It has proved competitive, increasing the margin of safety if parks take longer to reopen.
- Fast-growing streaming division. DIS has proved agile as it successfully launched a streaming service, Disney+, that has already gained 86mn+ subscribers which was the company’s original 5 year target. This is promising as it shows management can adapt to rapidly changing technology trends.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) - Designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
- Shift to clean energy; ENPH emerging as market leader. Going into 2021, sentiments towards solar have been at an all time high. This trend is expected to continue, especially after the Georgia run-off results. Solar firms are expected to benefit from extended tax incentives on both the consumer and producer ends.
- Technological advantage. ENPH has developed the industry leading solution and is rapidly taking market share from its primary competitor, SolarEdge. Pricing reflects this, but it's expected to continue. Among key competitors, Enphase has been one of the lowest cost producers. Its low-cost structure is a major contributing factor to its improving margins.
Evolution Gaming Group (OTC: EVVTY) - Swedish company that develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated B2B live casino solutions for gaming operators.
- Early mover advantage. Evolution’s lack of competition enables it to rapidly grow in new markets and create a loyal customer base, with high switching costs. The company has effectively grown EBITA margins from 41.6% in 1Q18 to 64.8% in 3Q20. Margin expansion is expected to continue.
- Massive untapped markets. Europe is estimated to be around $2.5bn (EVVTY has 50% market share), Asian market is ~15x the size of Europe (150% YoY growth for EVVTY in Asia). North America’s market is ~$210mn, a 42% increase YoY, with NJ and PA the only states currently operating (NY looks promising). Management thinks the US will be the largest in the long-term.
- Undetected from Wall Street. Evolution has almost no analyst coverage in the US and very minimal coverage in Europe, presenting opportunity for additional growth as institutional money managers recognize this opportunity and draw attention to the stock. Additionally, Evolution has a founder-led management team that is highly aligned with shareholders (mgmt owns over 30% of the stock).
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) - Enables people to connect through devices. It’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus.
- Zuck. It’s not a question of who is the next Jobs/Bezos/Gates/Zuck, because Zuck is super young. He has a history of being able to execute: IG acquisition / transition from desktop to mobile / denying multiple acquisition opportunities in his twenties.
- Undervalued. FB is the cheapest among the FAANG stocks, yet has some of the highest growth rates. This is mainly because of its continuous political scandals. With Trump out of office, I think FB has a chance to stay out of trouble and start to realize higher multiples. The antitrust lawsuit is not a threat imo, it is actually an opportunity. If the govt forces FB to break up, we would get shares in the spin-offs, which would be valued at a higher multiple than FB. For example, if Instagram spun off from FB and traded at the same multiple as SNAP, Instagram’s market cap would be larger than FB’s.
Redfin Corporation (NASDAQ: RDFN) - Provides residential real estate brokerage services.
- Digitization of Real Estate (i.e. “iBuying”). Technology in RE is moving from being informational to transactional. Redfin’s iBuying service is dubbed “RedfinNow.” The service basically buys homes from sellers looking for a quick and convenient sale (close deals within 10-30 days). This segment isn’t profitable yet as it is just getting started, but promising as the management adapts to technology trends.
- Inter-US Migration and housing outlook. People are moving out of the cities because of COVID / trying to avoid taxes / etc. which increases demand for Redfin’s services. With interest rates extremely low (and no expectation for them to increase), homebuying demand should continue to grow.
- RDFN most attractively valued compared to Z and OPEN, with the most upside potential given its market cap ~$7bn. Some are predicting RDFN might start offering rental services as well. RDFN has the best LT margin potential.
Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) - Provides virtual healthcare services on a B2B basis to its clients and provides services to consumers directly and through channel partners.
- Competitive positioning in industry ripe for disruption. Healthcare is a huge market yet to be significantly disrupted. COVID has accelerated this disruption. Providers who were once opposed to telemedicine now realize its benefits and several regulatory changes are promising for telemedicines growth potential. Medicare and other government-sponsored coverage is expected to include telemedicine benefits, increasing TDOC’s TAM.
- Livongo acquisition. From the consumer POV, this will increase access to healthcare at a lower cost. Teladoc will have access to a larger amount of data it can interpret to refine its services and monetization strategies.
Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE) - Digital entertainment, electronic commerce, and digital financial services. The Company operates three business segments: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMonkey. The Company’s digital entertainment business, Garena, is a global game developer and publisher with a presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America. Garena provides access to mobile and personal computer online games. Shopee provides users with a shopping environment that is supported by integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, and other value-added services. SeaMonkey business is a digital financial services provider. SeaMonkey offers e-wallet services, payment processing, credit related digital financial offerings, and other financial products.
- Diversified consumer internet company with market-leading position. Sea caters to Southeast Asia and Taiwan, providing its online gaming, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Shopee has overtaken competitors, it is widening its market share lead. ESports is a rapidly growing market (15.7% YoY to $1.1bn in 2020) and Sea is outpacing market growth.
- Pay for quality. The best companies keep going up for years in a row, and I think Sea is in the early stages of being classified as such a company. It’s worth $100bn but has effectively proved its ability to identify opportunities and expand business lines.
- Still early stages of developing its consumer banking business, so we get the security of a bigger, established company with upside for an additional, lucrative business line such as fintech.
Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) - Waste services company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services.
- Recession resilient; re-opening trade. The waste management industry is recession resilient, it will always be around.
- Non-hazardous waste collection. With a progressive government likely to push climate initiatives, recycling and non-hazardous waste collection are likely to benefit on the back end.
- WCN has a large moat; there isn’t much of a competitive threat the way the industry operates. Management’s strategy is to generally only spend what FCF is available. This enables the company to make acquisitions while handling its debt load. Great for stable growth.
P.S. I have two other accounts - one with about 40 growth stocks and another with about 10 big names / ETFs. However, this portfolio has the largest allocation for 2021. My first time trying a more concentrated approach.
submitted by bull_doze to investing [link] [comments]
If you can't handle losses, just fucking buy etf's
There are a lot of people complaining about PR, IR etc. who do not understand shit about business or the stock market.
Hyln is a great company. Healy is s great CEO. The team has fantastic people and everything goes how it should. Even competition seems to become smaller.
If you can not wait 5 years to make money with a stock then go to the casino and try your luck. Investing is not about getting rich quick. It is about rational decisions and patience.
If you can not handle risk and cry everytime a stock falls 2% then you should buy etf's maybe or not invest money you need for paying bills etc.
Why are so many people so fucking stupid to not understand this?
submitted by Messias2021 to Hyliion [link] [comments]
Why ETFs if I get to know holdings & buy the stocks myself
It might be a basic quetstion, but didn't find the find the answer in Google. But if know a certain ETF holdings, and I believe in it, then why buy it if I can buy the individual stocks of that ETF with same distribution and weight ?
If there something else within ETF investing that i'm missing here ?
submitted by Xzorba101 to ETFs [link] [comments]
The real silver end game from a GenX perspective
Corrections at bottom I'm a retarded GenXer who YOLO'd junior silver miner OTM call options in 2011 and lost a truckload of cash. But I kept my phyzz until a freak boating accident sunk it all. Oh well, this isn't financial advice, I'm a proven idiot, and nobody should listen to me.
I've learned a lot about the silver markets charlatans since then. Mike Maloney is a forever pumper. Peter Schiff is a suit and shill. Doug Casey lives on a ranch in Argentina but has his head far up his ass. Since you retards love to lose it all, go listen to those guys. But there are some very serious voices in the precious metals market that have proven the fraud and manipulation and even come up with ways around it: Ted Butler (commodity analysis), Eric Sprott (creator of $PSLV), James Dines (legendary newsletter writer), and James Turk (creator of
goldmoney.com).
Silver is the biggest opportunity for profit that the general public could broadly participate in. If the price of silver goes up, the miners will see amplified gains. Juniors would explode into the alpha centuri (13,000% gains or more, easily). The reason we know this is because it's been tried before by people smarter than any of us (Hunt Brothers 1980, Buffet's 1997-2006 silver purchase, and 2010 mini-squeeze-beatdown). Even that lucky commie bastard Max Keiser tried to rally enough retards together to squeeze silver and "crash JPMorgan" before he got rich off bitcoin. {If you can't read, there is a video breakdown: search "youtube Is a WallStreetBets Silver Squeeze Possible" for a pretty good historical overview}
The forces at play in the precious metals market are global, historical, and backed by the biggest banks, not some meaningless hedgefund. It's the real deal. American's money used to be backed in bi-metallic standard, all coinage had some precious metals (pre 1964 dimes, silver dollars/half dollars and paper currency all convertible to silver or gold). All real silverbugs ultimate goal is to return to a bi-metalic backed US currency. It's a big part of the precious metals folklore, and the fact that the last straw that sealed President Kennedy's fate was signing Executive Order 11110 which would have returned the US to a silver standard. This would have restored faith in our financial system, eliminate the scourge of inflation, balanced the value of labor versus financial assets, and allow regular workers to save instead of being forced to participate in a ridiculous casino just to have a retirement.
Attention CNBC media whores reading this: who is the villain of this story? Blythe Masters. Check her out, she's actually pretty hot. {search: "Blythe Masters wants to upend finance again twitter bloomberg"} And she is a goddamn evil mastermind that created the Credit Default Swap (CDS). Yes, she created the financial weapon of mass destruction that sunk the global economy in 2008, she is first author on the paper. Then she went on to lead the JP Morgan precious metals trading desk to unwind Bear Sterns silver short book by containing any rally (that's how I lost all my money). Now she is working on blockchain technology that can be used by the banking cartels as a weapon to further enslave the entire world. And, yes, you degenerates, she has a sexy British accent and a killer set of legs. {search "egonzehnder blythe masters shares career advice daughters 2019"}
Steven Cohen is a fucking worm to Blythe Masters. Any financial instrument like SLV would be manipulated easily by her and the ilk that inherited her positions at JPMorgan and other bullion banks. There is only 1 way to perform a real silver squeeze: physical ownership (not paper ownership like SLV, there is a big difference). The commodity futures markets is called the COMEX. The COMEX has about a 250 contracts trade for every 1 ounce of actual silver available for delivery. That means if a handful of commodity traders stand for delivery and the physical delivery can't be made it will crash the COMEX. Sure, they might be forced to settle for cash like the Hunt brothers, but it will crash the COMEX and the price will soar nonetheless. It's a real thing, people have done it, there is no stopping that it will happen again. And what happens historically is a giant leap for junior miners:
Copper Lake in 1980 jumped 13,000%. The average silver junior miner lept over 2,300%). It was soo easy to make money, even an ape could do it. So, how do we avoid the manipulation?
- $SLV is a scam! SLV's custodian is JP Morgan, the vampire squid sucking on the face of humanity! Don't fall for it. They can never be trusted. Most silverbugs don't even believe they have any silver or gold in their ETFs of any significant amounts, otherwise there would be outside audits which don't happen. Anybody suggesting to use SLV is a pumper, paid shill, or doesn't know the history. And yes, now that JPMorgan has paid almost a Billion dollar fine for manipulating the silver market, they are long silver or at least are holding it as custodian for other players. So if silver goes up will JPMorgan win...yeah maybe. But that's not the point, you'd win, I'd win, the people of the world win.
2. $PSLV is not an appropriate vehicle. PSLV is a closed end fund. Eric Sprott is not going to buy any more silver and issue any more shares. Premium to NAV went over 20% and he didn't do it. PSLV serves a purpose (tax savings), but they don't acquire on commodity exchanges unless a big player takes delivery. If you actually have enough money to take delivery 10,000 oz - then PSLV works. So what to really do:
Buy PSLV or physical For the paranoid, you can create an account on
goldmoney.com, put money into silver and it is owned by you, stored in Switzerland and registered in the Island of Jersey (for the most part outside of financial oligarchy control). You have to fill out a form on your taxes each year but buying/selling stonks have the same requirement, just a different form. Again, NOT financial advice - I'm a proven town idiot and hold no credentials no should you listen to me.
Goldmoney.com was created by James Turk, exactly for this purpose. So people can own phyzz without having to hide a 1000lb safe in your wife's boyfriend's basement or sink your phyzz into a pond. And also he set it up outside of the US so if the US government seized physical (like 1934!), his customers would have some chance at taking physical delivery in Switzerland. I wholeheartedly believed that the crash of 2008 would lead to this eventual outcome if silver went really high and it almost did at $50, at $100 the champagne corks stop poppin.
So then what went happened in 2011? Blythe Masters happened. JP Morgan and the other bullion banks beat down the precious metals market in a coordinated attack of naked short selling. Punishing beat downs, if you're into that kinda thing!
The silver spike of 2010/11 happened because some silverbugs bought physical metals and there were shortages at the retail level, just like what has started today. In all honesty, there were probably 10,000 Silverbugs in existence at that time all acting as lone actors on a handful of forums. This time could be much different, if a lot of apes bought silver and the intermediaries held for delivery on the COMEX this could break the back of the silver cartel and Lord Rothschild would roll over in his grave. And silver junior miners would skyrocket!
I love silver, what will I buy? 90-100% into some other form of physical ownership (coins/or
goldmoney.com). $PSLV is also an acceptable vehicle
but doesn't squeeze LBMA/COMEX supplies {search: "sprott physical silver trust December 2020 fact sheet"}. And 0-10% into long-dated calls or shares of junior minors. Some pumper was saying $AG (First Majestic). Sure maybe, or just use $SILJ a basket of silver juniors that would all explode and give you less single company risk to enjoy the rally. Get your popcorn.
And those boomers, will they help buy silver?
Don't count on it, but that's a different type of rant. TL;DR Buy either physical silver, $PSLV, or goldmoney.com and also a little bit of silver miners to amplify gainz. Blythe Masters is a demon. Break the COMEX. Restore our heritage of sound money. Corrections: PSLV has registered to issue $1.5billion more shares. That’s a lot of shiny silver. See the link in the comments below. It’s looks like PSLV will be retails best bet to apply pressure on the physical market. And if bullion dealers become stocked out, and PSLV stands for delivery, this strategy would work.
submitted by GoodTimesSdCpl to Wallstreetsilver [link] [comments]
So you want to gamble: Some high-reward long term picks
Hey everyone, after the meme stock fiasco I wanted to create a post to help out newer investors that want to get into some stock "gambling". I will preface this by saying I am an investor in all of these companies, percentage allocation in my portfolio is going to be listed next to each stock.
My biggest point I hope you take away is these stocks are a MINIMUM 6 month hold if you want to see any real return. I will be holding these for at least 52 weeks, most likely longer. The market is not a casino. You can gain generational wealth but ONLY through making the right picks and holding them for a long time.
Do not place any cash you know you will potentially need access to. These companies are picks I believe to have a solid product/idea/vision and are worth a bet with my hard-earned money. I'm not an expert but I have been in the market for five years and have learned a little bit along the way. Any questions/advice/comments will be interacted with in the comments as I want to learn from this subreddit. Here are the picks...
SENSONICS HOLDINGS - $SENS (4.3% of portfolio)
- Some DD in this thread from two weeks ago. Diabetics is a huge sector of the market and SENS has the superior product to existing Dexcom and Abbott. Their product is improving and gaining some traction from healthcare providers.
Sports Betting/iGaming ETF - $BETZ (1.2% of portfolio)
- Gambling on gambling stocks :) Sports betting's outlook is looking promising as the prohibition cuts back. Major holdings are Draftkings and Penn National (Huge casino chain with sportsbook operations).
XPENG Inc - $XPEV (2% of portfolio) - China is pumping out EV's and Chinese consumers are purchasing at record levels. XPENG differentiates with smart technology and robotic designs, looking to capture the ever growing market of wealthy Chinese buyers. Great vehicle delivery numbers means I think they are just getting started.
Compass Pathways - $CMPS (4% of portfolio) - First psilocybin therapy to reach the market. Only company in the US with FDA approved trials on psilocybin to treat depression. Biggest company in the space and furthest lead in the US (biggest and most restrictive market). If you want to bet on the psychedelic space as a whole, this is the first company that will be relevant in the US (if approved). I'm a fan of some other stocks in the sector but they aren't allowed in this sub.
Hims and Hers ($HIMS) - (4% of portfolio)
- Online telehealth for previously unrepresented services (Erectile dysfunction, hair loss, skincare). They sell their own pills and contract their own medical officials. Everything is done in house, leading to great profits. Concerns about other companies doing the same thing are valid, but don't underestimate their value as a brand and platform.
submitted by juk12 to stocks [link] [comments]
Stock Market News Today | APHA & TLRY Merge | APPLE Rises | Stimulus & FED Meeting Today [12-16]
What is the latest news in the stock market? Aphria is merging with Tilray while the stimulus may be agreed on today after the latest developments. Also, the FED starts its 2-day meeting, let’s talk about this and everything happening in the stock market ~Very Long Post~ Hello everyone and Good Morning! So, let’s start with the recap of yesterday as we see a great day for the stock market, the best in December actually, as a one-two punch of stimulus and vaccine data helped the rally, with the broad market
SP500 finishing up 1.29%, the
Nasdaq Composite 1.25% and the
Dow Industrial 1.13%. We also saw the
VIX dropping more than 7% from the recent highs, as it was nearing the 25 levels which would imply more volatility ahead for the stock market.
We saw ¾ of the companies gaining
yesterday on decent volume, with 145 new highs, as all 11 sectors finished in the green, with Utilities and Energy leading the way up almost 2%, while just 2
sectors gained less than 1% for the day, the Communications sector and the consumer staples. This rally was pushed by almost every type of
company, especially small and mid-caps, as large-caps lagged a bit and were pretty much flat for the day, with the exception of Apple as you can see in this
HEAT MAP, as I said in a previous post, I believe that Apple is ready for takeoff after more and more reports of great numbers in the new iPhone 12 lineup sales, and with the Fitness+ service launching this Monday this keeps increasing the number of services that Apple offers. I believe that the Apple One bundle will be a great revenue stream for them alongside the move to the 5G in the next years.
So here is the economic
calendar for today as we start off early in the morning with MBA mortgage applications, followed but retail sales, PMI, inventories and finish up with the last meeting and decisions from the FED in 2020.
We also received news that as soon as the FDA & CDC give approval, which could and probably will happen as soon as this weekend,
Moderna will be able to ship over 6M doses right away, more than double what Pfizer delivered in the initial shipment.
This is happening while the stimulus appears closer than ever, but it should be noted that it does appear it will not include any stimulus checks for citizens. As the Congress seems to be targeting a $750B relief
package. This is very needed as the savings, especially for low-income households, has been substantially on the
declin since May, just like always, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
This measures from the Government have been unexpectedly just been called upon from Warren
Buffett also, as he emphasized that small businesses have become collateral damage, though he previously said he wouldn’t speak in public about this until May, the degrading situation probably made him change his mind.
We will also have the FED starting its meetings
today, and follow up tomorrow, with most analysts expecting the FED to lay out the plans for additional asset purchases to provide additional support for the economy. And even if this is a temporary measure, it would be great for the economy if they keep this program going until the vaccine is more widely available and the reopening can come back in full force.
Yesterday we also got numbers on the Industrial
Production, which beat the consensus with a .4% increase M/M while capacity utilization also increased with the manufacturing output way better than expected. This was led especially by motor vehicle and parts sales which were up 5.3%.
So, with some good news in the last period, a recent
survey showed that fewer respondents believe that stocks are overpriced or overvalued right now. I think this is a fair opinion, as we have gone through a period of consolidation since the beginning of
November, stocks have become more stable, some have lost ground, some have gained. This is very healthy for the broad stock market and may eventually start a new bull run very soon.
On some other stock market
news, we saw the whole green energy sector getting a big boost yesterday, as the US Congress seems to have agreed to a
package of tax incentives and extensions for both wind and solar projects. Some of the biggest gainers yesterday were SunPower, Enphase, SolarEdge, with most of the companies from the INVESCO Solar ETF trading way higher. As we also saw
PENN national gaining yesterday after giving great news again to investors, as they have acquired a new casino in Maryland as they keep expanding their nationwide footprint.
Meanwhile, we will get
Lennar Q4 earnings today after the close, and I expect them to have a great quarter, but this hasn’t helped many companies this quarter, as even great earnings results haven’t pushed most companies to have big gains, I think Lennar will post a terrific quarter as a result of the continuing strong housing market as more and
more people flee big cities attracted by better tax implications while they also run from the growing poverty in states like California.
Some good
news also came from the Eurozone this morning, as the PMI popped up to 49.8 which is still a contraction for the economy, but that is an improving view of the economy overseas, up from 45.3 in November.
We also have to keep an eye on what
ABNB and Doordash will do, as investors are starting to get the chance to short this highly valued IPOs. So, this might hit the stocks even more after they have suffered in the last days as I expected.
And one last bit of
news, Aphria is merging with Tilray, they will become an almost $4B market cap cannabis player, as they seek to also move to the US and grow its market share in the country, as the full legalizing of cannabis in the US seems to be approaching. This will help both companies to be able to have low-cost, state of the art cultivations alongside improved processing and manufacturing facilities. This will also position them for a better footprint in the EU, with Aphria having a footprint in Germany, while Tilray has a low-cost production facility in Portugal.
I think the pot and clean energy sectors alongside the EVs are the ones to watch in the next years.
Let’s hope for another great day in the market as the
FUTURES seem to be pointing at a good open, hopefully some green action continues after that.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to stocks [link] [comments]
3k to invest in stocks. Ideas? Help please
3k to invest in stocks. My idea is 50% in technology and 50% in the rest.So far I have bought: Walmart, Microsoft, Vanguard Total Stock Market and Disney. What others do you recommend to diversify my portfolio and earn between 10 and 20% per year? Thank you.
submitted by EdieFisher to stocks [link] [comments]
Positivity for newbies without a lot of $ to invest
Hey! I'm pretty new to this, but if you are too and you're anything like me, you've probably seen a lot of people talking about how they've bought 300 shares of this, dropped $2k on that, have six figures in ETFs, etc. I've even seen a couple comments scoffing at people who only have a couple hundred to invest. I dunno about you, but it can get frustrating and disheartening. So I just wanted to take a minute and say: you're doing great just by getting started!
It really doesn't matter how much money you have. Sure, the more you can invest, the more you can (potentially) gain, but any profit is profit. If you want to get into trading like a lot of people do here, it's perfectly okay to start with $100, buy a share or two in something that seems reliable yet cheap, make like $5, sell it, rinse and repeat. You can work your way up to doubling or tripling your initial investment by just buying a good stock on a red day, waiting a few days, and selling when it's in the green by a few dollars. It's not as glamorous or fast as people talking about their $10k gains in a day but it is profit, it can be faster than long-term investing when you're just getting started, and it does allow you more money to play with without having to put in more of your own.
And if you want to start investing long-term, any amount is a great amount. $100 in a savings account might make 0.20% APY, like what my bank offers. $100 in ETFs could get you ~10% annual returns. $10 in a year doesn't sound like much, but it's a massive improvement over 20¢. (And you'll almost definitely put aside more than $100 year to year anyway, but you get the point.)
All in all, any profit is profit, the best amount to trade with is anything you can afford to lose, the best time to start long-term investing is always immediately, and it's perfectly fine if all you're making is a few dollars trading or investing. The important part is that you're getting started, so don't get discouraged! Best of luck to all of us =)
p.s. Also, IMO, short-term trading is okay! As long as you know the risks (yes, even of meme stocks) you can treat this as a game or a casino or whatever you want. Like someone else here said, this is
/stocks, not
/investing. At the end of the day it's your money, and sometimes stupid-seeming risks will make way more profit overnight than safe long-term investments will in years, and sometimes you'll lose your life's savings in a day and wish you'd just gone the investing route with $VOO or something. Do whatever you're comfortable with, don't listen to anyone scoffing about what investing has become. (Although, I guess, take what I've said with a grain of salt too! I am probably just as new as you ;b Feel free to correct me on anything as well!)
submitted by sanguineicarus to stocks [link] [comments]
Robinhood can be a gambling platform, but it's not and removing it or regulating it will exacerbate the divide between the wealthy and the rest of the U.S.
Hi everyone,
Lately I've been reading and watching on the news about Robinhood and I just wanted to give my two cents as somebody who actually researches Gambling disorder in the United States. My goal in this post is to hopefully encourage people on WSB to become politically active in preventing the regulations or removal of certain aspects that Robinhood allows on its investing platform. First, let me define some terms from the Gambling disorder field:
- Gambling- placing something of value on a random outcome in order to achieve a desired result or profit (this last part is added by me as I think it gives a better explanation of why an individual gambles in the first place);
- Gambling disorder: A psychological disorder where an individual is unable to control their gambling to the point that they are experiencing consequences from the behavior. The behavior also has to occur without the presence of Mania, other biological co-morbidity, or under the influence of a psychoactive substance.
In this post I will address a few arguments at Robinhood. The first is regarding the "gambling" nature of investment that Robinhood purportedly encourages. The second is that the average investor needs to be "protected" because they lack the information and knowledge to participate on the app.
When I first downloaded Robinhood, I was skeptical at first and proceeded to uninstall and reinstall it multiple times before I deposited $350 to invest in stock. The app provided me a "scratch-off" with my first deposit that rewarded me with my first stock (some medical company). That was the only time that event occurred. If we look at my prior definition of gambling, technically that is not a form of gambling. I placed nothing of value on this random outcome. If the actual act of investing in stock is gambling this leads to an interesting analogy regarding trading platforms, not just Robinhood.
Stocks are the game (roulette, blackjack, craps), Robinhood and trading platforms are the dealers (giving information on the rules of the game and how much it costs to place a bet), and the liberal market is the casino.
In this analogy everybody is in the Casino, and if you don't play the game you stand to lose regardless as your money loses value to inflation. Even worse, if the casino folds the people that didn't cash out or were fully invested in the casino never collapsing (The Great Depression, the recession of 2008 the coronavirus recession) can stand to lose everything even if they didn't participate (regular person that was laid off) or were placing safe bets (ETF's Blue chip stocks etc).
The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, William Galvin, is addressing the wrong issue by suing Robinhood. What should be addressed is the reasons that people even participate in Robinhood or in any trading platform. The average individual doesn't understand the market and the United States does not address this ignorance by providing information on how to properly invest for retirement or provide a welfare structure that protects against poverty as individuals become unable to participate fully in the economy due to injury, developmental disability, age, discrimination or lack of access to the "free" market. To claim that people on Robinhood "gamble" for excitement or risk is reductive. People invest their money on Robinhood for the potential accumulate life changing "tendies" that will protect them from the eventuality that they will be unable to participate in the economy and the government will not insulate them from the fiscal impact an individual will (not if) have to deal with in regards rising medical cost for their healthcare and any other services they would require in order to lead a normal life. If William Galvin is actually concerned about the "gamefying" of investment, he should focus on regulating Wall Street and the Banking sector, because last time I checked investors on Robinhood invest with their own money, not the money of other people.
The argument that the average investor isn't informed also leads to more issues that I guarantee the government doesn't want to address or even ask because it would require an expansion of the welfare state and higher taxes on companies and individuals. If the average American is too dumb to invest using Robinhood that what is the solution? The U.S. government has always fought any sort of government guaranteed income or services to insulate an individual against against insolvency from the free market as can be seen by the desire to privatize almost all forms of government programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Food Stamps and Medicaid. This has already occurred with certain programs at the federal level such as HUD which doesn't do anything to help people get affordable housing and the drastic reduction in funding for colleges and universities especially after boomers were done getting their degrees for essentially free.
So lets examine what the average person has to understand in the American economy,
- they have to be able to plan and invest for their retirement,
- understand loans (including all the fine print such as interest) to pay for college, and purchasing of necessary items for certain areas such as housing or a car;
- Navigate a Byzantine like medical industry that can easily bankrupt the average American even with insurance;
So the average American is suppose to navigate all of the aforementioned areas with little to no government assistance. But Robinhood should be regulated, makes sense. Let's not even talk about that most Americans read at about an 8th grade level and have a tough time understanding that a quarter pounder is less than a one third hamburger...
"Why the third pound hamburger failed: One of the most vivid arithmetic failings displayed by Americans occurred in the early 1980s, when the A&W restaurant chain released a new hamburger to rival the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder. With a third-pound of beef, the A&W burger had more meat than the Quarter Pounder; in taste tests, customers preferred A&W’s burger. And it was less expensive. A lavish A&W television and radio marketing campaign cited these benefits. Yet instead of leaping at the great value, customers snubbed it. Only when the company held customer focus groups did it become clear why. The Third Pounder presented the American public with a test in fractions. And we failed. Misunderstanding the value of one-third, customers believed they were being overcharged.
Why, they asked the researchers, should they pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as they did for a quarter-pound of meat at McDonald’s. The “4” in “¼,” larger than the “3” in “⅓,” led them astray. --Elizabeth Green, NYT Magazine, on losing money by overestimating the American Public Intelligence."
The
REAL QUESTION is what responsibility does the government have to insulate the average American from an economy that by its very nature is predatory, especially when the argument set forth by William Galvinson is that the public doesn't understand how to invest on Robinhood. Especially since the government has told the public from day one to take care of themselves as they get older through investing instead of expecting the government to provide assistance. By removing or regulating Robinhood, the fungibility of the average American's dollar will drop in value because they are prevented from another avenue of wealth accumulation, which research shows (at least for those in poverty) they turn to gambling as a means of wealth accumulation because even though the return on a gamble is less it is technically even since their dollar is also worth less.
I think I may have gone on a rant, sorry.
TL; DR,
Please buy me some tendies William Galvin, because I like to be wined and dined before I GET FUCKED!
Robinhood isn't gambling. Robinhood just provides a service to investing on Wall Street, the actual gambling is our devotion to supply side economics which is the original, STONKS ONLY GO UP 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Also, if we are going to start regulating Robinhood because of the actions of a minority (WSB) then we should start regulating other industries that are WAY more predatory and impact a larger amount of the U.S. such as, payday loans, guns, pharma industry, surprise medical bills from emergency rooms, childcare, prison industry, bail industry etc. I bet you the cost to the U.S. economy from those industries is way more than anything Robinhood has done.
Positions: SAVE at 18.45 67 shares; and TQQQ 5 shares at 174.71
submitted by TankMainOW77 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
WSB ---2021 New Years Resolutions
Alright you fellow retards lets all agree to perhaps maybe hit the ground running a little different going into the next year. We've had a great year already so lets not let the Boomers win and say "seeeee the Wall Street Bets crowd ultimately got it wrong." Here is a list of random thoughts/advice/and new years resolutions for 2021. Feel free to add to it in the comments below:
1- FUCKING STOP buying weekly options that are far OTM. Like just stop. Its stupid as FUCK. Buy options that have at least 30 DTE so you have a chance for the position to set up. You can always go back and sell those OTM weeklys against your new monthly calls to some other retard and see how stupid it is. Or worst case you can roll out those options and keep making more money---THIS IS THE WAY
2-Seriously why isn't there a $WSB etf? Right there is our Ticker. Someone smart who knows these things please start up an ETF with all of our favorites so the lazy FUCKS who just want to go along for the ride can get exposure. Also its an ETF----young people love anything that is an ETF and raises the share prices so we all win. Someone make that happen and I'll buy the first 100 shares
3- Loss porn is funny. But you know what we should make a thing with 2021??? Tendie parties. I wanna instead see the insane stupid things people buy with their tendies instead of knowing they stayed in the casino where the house always wins. I'm talking tigers and boats and shit! Looking at you GME gang. This is the year where we get our wives back by giving them DDD implants! You need them for a flotation device incase your private planes crash. So its an investment!
4- Options are great, but remember that the secret is out on us now. Massive buying of options alone doesn't move share price. You know what does? BUYING STONKS!!!! Put half into stocks and other half into options.
5- I love it when shit moons🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸. Like mmmmmmm gets daddy hard in the morning. But I'm going to end up jacking off while my wife fucks her boyfriend if I don't do some profit taking. Sell calls at the highs, pair back positions. I love you diamond hand fucks, but remember the people that are telling you to hold as shit drops are probably the ones who have already hedged their profits.
6- I still want Uncle Cramer to ask me to sit on his lap in 2021 and tell me what a good boy I've been. So lets spend the entire year crushing it so we can get hopefully touched by Uncle and a pat on our bottoms at the end of the year when we truly fucking take this shit over to the next level
7- Lastly: more memes please? its the only thing that makes me laugh when I see my account is down 10% intraday---I know I'm a fucking pussy for not risking it all on stupid shit. 10% is pussy shit---so yea keep em coming!
Any other resolutions? Remember its a long game---Boomers would love more than anything to say we are ultimately wrong. They don't understand we are here to fuck shit up and tear down the status quo. Lets outlive these geriatric fucks so we can run the money printer one day!
EDIT POSITIONS: 3700 shares AMD at $77; 300 GME shares at $17.23; 6 Feb 21 $20 calls long -3 Jan $22 calls -3 jan $25 calls; 400 PLTR shares at $16.27 5 Jan 22 $35 at $14.00 oooof -3 jan 15 $29 calls
Plus a bunch more you don’t care about
submitted by jwredskins55 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
What to do with your gains?
Hey Theta Gang! If you've read my last post, you'll realize that I'm pretty new to the Theta ways. I didn't have the capital to really leverage being the Casino and now I can! Not gonna lie, I love feeling like I'm in control (I play MTG and I'm a control player - go figure).
So how do you guys utilize your gains, specifically the premium gains? I have used them to buy some LEAPS, ER lottery tickets, and some longer term calls (no puts cuz it's a raging bull market).
I've been debating on whether to keep that capital so I can play more CSPs vs. buying shares of stocks I actually want to own but not wheel. However, with the 2nd point, would it just make more sense to sell CSPs on them, assuming I can afford 100 shares?
I'm not tied to 1 strategy, I still have WSB in my blood, the overbearing voice of reason of ETF's/Mutual Funds from my parents and the Theta ways.
submitted by TheFailologist to thetagang [link] [comments]
casino stocks etf video
5 Casino Stocks With Winning Hands To Bet On In 2021 Resilient during the pandemic, these 5 casino stocks stand to win big as iGaming and sports betting launches from coast-to-coast The performance of the casino sector can be gauged by the VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF (), which includes both traditional casino companies and online gambling stocks.BJK has underperformed the ... Casino Stocks Appear Set to Head Higher. FACEBOOK TWITTER LINKEDIN By Casey Murphy. Updated Dec 1, 2020. ... As one of the top holdings of the BJK ETF, Caesars Entertainment, Inc. ... Casino Stocks Are Hanging in There. ... However, as I consider myself the “options” guy, you might think about the VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF (NASDAQ:BJK) as a possible alternative. Let's take a look at some gambling stocks and ETF that are suffering from the coronavirus ... Casino stocks are also suffering as tourist visits to Macao fell 60% year over year through ... A casino ETF. Finally, if you prefer not to choose individual investments, there's a fund that specializes in casino stocks. The VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSEMKT:BJK) ... Casino stocks aren't for everyone, so investors need to make sure that stocks fit their risk profile. The highest-risk segment of the market isn't casino operators but rather suppliers, who have a ...
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